Campaign data

Hypothesis explorer

The 33 runs that reached planning nominated 179 hypotheses. 136 were evaluated against their pre-registered decision rules, and 15 of those (11%) were supported. Every null, negative and untestable result is listed here with its evidence, so that nobody has to run the same analysis twice.

What the verdicts mean

Six verdicts, always shown in this order. The first five make up the 136 evaluated hypotheses. 83 of the 136 were not supported or not testable with the available data; even counting every partial and inconclusive verdict as support would give at most 53 of 136.

Supported
Tested. The pre-registered decision rule was met.
Partially supported
Tested. Some components of the decision rule were met, but not all (for example, the direction was right but a replication arm failed).
Not supported
Tested. The decision rule was not met: a null result, a refutation or an opposite effect. Includes powered negatives.
Inconclusive
Tested, but underpowered, ambiguous or confounded, so the data cannot settle it.
Not testable (data)
Not tested, or tested only through a proxy, because a suitable dataset, modality, sample size or metadata was unavailable, access-restricted or unsuitable.
Not tested (run did not execute)
Not tested for a reason unrelated to data: the run halted before execution, a technical failure, a time or compute limit, or a follow-up that was proposed but never run. Excluded from evaluated totals.

Explore the hypotheses

179 hypotheses from 33 runs

15 of 136 evaluated were supported (11%).

  • Supported15
  • Partial7
  • Not supported45
  • Inconclusive31
  • Not testable38
  • Not run43

alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1

AD6 hypotheses, 4 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 323 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    APOE4/4 vs APOE3/3 microglial pseudobulk: >=2/4 LDAM markers up AND >=2/3 DAM2 markers down (FDR<0.05) at matched Braak (SEA-AD primary, Morabito replication).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The H1 decision rule required ≥2 LDAM markers upregulated and ≥2 DAM2 markers downregulated at FDR<0.05; neither criterion was met. H1 is therefore not supported.

    Adjudication note

    0/7 markers FDR<0.05; DAM2 trended UP. Tested only as binary APOE4 carrier (n=25) vs non-carrier (n=59) because CellxGene SEA-AD lacks e4/4 vs e3/3 genotype; bootstrap log2FC instead of DESeq2; Morabito replication impossible (no APOE column). Strict reading could call this NOT_TESTED_DATA (diluted proxy contrast). Knowledge-graph status = refuted.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Per-donor LDAM/DAM ratio positively associated with tau (Braak) after adjusting for amyloid; beta_tau>0, p<0.05, 95% CI excludes 0.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The partial regression coefficient for Braak stage was β_tau=+0.031 (95% bootstrap CI: −0.007 to +0.069; p=0.143; Fig. 4c)

    Adjudication note

    Report: 'H2 is therefore not supported.' Direction positive; plan rated H2 adequately powered (MDE r~0.29) but report says post hoc n~290 needed for observed r=0.162; age covariate dropped (categorical bins). Knowledge-graph last status = inconclusive.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Monotonic APOE dose-response: LDAM score e3/3 < e3/4 < e4/4 and DAM2 e3/3 > e3/4 > e4/4 (Jonckheere-Terpstra, Braak-controlled).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Because the CellxGene object provides only binary carrier status, the test reduces to a two-group comparison equivalent to Mann-Whitney U.

    Adjudication note

    Three-genotype dose-response untestable (binary APOE4 only). Proxy 2-group, Braak-UNadjusted test: LDAM p=0.006 (Bonf. 0.012), DAM2 p=0.887. Report relabels this as 'exploratory, not pre-registered' although H3 is in the PLAN-stage hypothesis list. Knowledge-graph status = supported (discrepancy). If proxy counted as a test: at most PARTIALLY_SUPPORTED.

  4. OTF1on the fly
    Not run

    APOE expression itself is elevated in LDAM-state microglia in SEA-AD (APOE4 autocrine feedback loop).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 OTF1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    upregulates APOE transcription.

    Adjudication note

    Raised in EXECUTE stage 2 (marked cheap to test); no later execute stage; data available but never run.

  5. OTF2on the fly
    Not testable

    In e4/e4 homozygous donors (Synapse syn64410371 metadata) the LDAM/DAM2 shift is larger than in heterozygotes and the H1 rule would pass.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 OTF2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Accessing fine-grained ε4/4 vs ε3/3 homozygous genotype from the SEA-AD Synapse release (syn64410371) and re-running the H1 pseudobulk DE contrast

    Adjudication note

    Listed only as a next step; fine-grained genotype absent from the fetched CellxGene object and the Synapse metadata was never fetched.

  6. OTF3on the fly
    Not run

    A linear mixed model with categorical age bins as random effects would recover a significant beta_tau for H2 in the same 84 donors.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1 OTF3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    with the same 84 donors.

    Adjudication note

    Never run; data available.

alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1

AD6 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report
  1. H1
    Not supported

    Of top-75 AD GWAS loci, microglia-dominant snATAC fraction exceeds p0=0.25 (>=25 loci, binomial) AND SPI1 motif accessibility is the top predictor of microglial dominance.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Under that denominator, the observed proportion is 13/75=17.3%, and the binomial test against p₀=0.25 gives p≈0.87 (FAIL).

    Adjudication note

    Criterion 1 fails under pre-registered n=75 denominator (only 33/75 loci had any peak); among 33 testable loci 13 MG-dominant, binomial p=0.048 (post hoc conditioning). Criterion 2 (SPI1) untestable: JASPAR/FIMO unavailable, logistic proxy circular/non-convergent. OmiCairn stage 4 analysis labelled 'PARTIAL' and knowledge-graph status = supported (discrepancy; code review & report call it FAIL).

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Microglial GWAS-overlapping peak accessibility peaks at DAM/mid-disease stage vs both homeostatic and late stages (both contrasts p<0.05, CI excl. 0).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    GWAS-overlapping peak accessibility was not stage-dependent (early vs late Δ=−0.008, 95% CI −0.023 to 0.007, p=0.881), refuting H2.

    Adjudication note

    Late-stage numerically higher (opposite). DAM-marker Stage2>Stage1 contrast 'significant' but flagged by code review as bootstrap collapse at 3-5 donors/group. Only 20 Morabito donors (plan: underpowered, d>=1.45); SEA-AD fallback not run (Synapse auth). Knowledge-graph nodes: one inconclusive, one refuted.

  3. H3
    Not supported

    Exploratory: secondary compartment of GWAS loci in excitatory-neuron peaks; rank order microglia > excitatory neurons > oligodendrocytes ~ astrocytes.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Number of GWAS loci where each cell type is dominant (MG: 13, ASC: 7, EX: 3, ODC: 2; 8 below accessibility floor).

    Adjudication note

    UNCERTAIN: no pre-registered threshold and the planned chi-square/pairwise Fisher tests were never run; verdict is descriptive only (observed order MG>ASC>EX>ODC, EX not second). Defensible alternative: INCONCLUSIVE.

  4. OTF1on the fly
    Supported

    Proportion of microglia-dominant loci exceeds the mean proportion for non-microglial cell types.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 OTF1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    This CI excludes 0, supporting directional microglial enrichment among loci with detectable accessibility.

    Adjudication note

    Delta=0.273, 95% CI [0.071, 0.485], p=0.004, but only among 33/75 testable loci; report notes compositional non-independence and that the stricter permutation-null comparison is not significant (Delta=0.029, p=0.483).

  5. OTF2on the fly
    Not testable

    GWAS-linked microglial circuits peak at late disease (Stage 5-6) rather than mid-disease (sustained late-inflammatory phenotype).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 OTF2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The SEA-AD atlas [9]—84 donors spanning the full severity spectrum with paired snATAC-seq and quantitative neuropathology—is the appropriate resource to resolve H2 definitively.

    Adjudication note

    Raised twice (stages 2 and 4). Morabito early-vs-late CI includes 0; SEA-AD snATAC blocked by Synapse authentication.

  6. OTF3on the fly
    Not run

    Fine-mapped credible sets (+/-5-50 kb) would recover more loci than lead-SNP overlap and may strengthen microglial enrichment.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1 OTF3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Use fine-mapped credible sets** from Bellenguez 2022 rather than lead SNPs.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted (orphaned) at claim-review stage 7 before any follow-up execute; credible sets are public.

alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1

AD9 hypotheses, 6 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 372 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    C1Q-C3-CR3, SPP1 and CXCL10-CXCR3 are among the top-10 disrupted L-R axes in AD PFC, each with positive monotone Braak slope (p<0.05, CI excl. 0).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H1 therefore fails on all three pre-registered sub-criteria.

    Adjudication note

    Final EXECUTE stage 9: C3-ITGAM rank 257 (p=0.565), SPP1-ITGA9 rank 45 and DOWN, CXCL10-CXCR3 absent from CellChatDB. Braak-monotone component untestable (no Braak in GSE157827; binary AD-vs-NC only). Global donor-label permutation p=0.494; report calls it 'an underpowered null result, not a powered negative' -> some may prefer INCONCLUSIVE. Graph H1 nodes last status inconclusive; stage 9 graph update = refutes.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Genes of disrupted L-R pairs (Braak III-IV or AD-vs-control) are enriched in top-20 AD GWAS locus genes (hypergeometric p<0.05, OR CI excl. 1).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H2 as pre-registered (direct overlap) is therefore untestable with this resource

    Adjudication note

    OmiCairn/report label it NOT SUPPORTED (OR=0.0, CI [0, 3.59], p=1.0) but only 2 GWAS genes are in the 305-gene CellChatDB background, i.e. a structurally degenerate test; Braak III-IV stratum also unavailable. Alternative: INCONCLUSIVE. Graph = refuted.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Exploratory: disrupted-axis intensity across EC, hippocampus, PFC tracks tau-spread order (Spearman rho>=0, p<0.05; needs SEA-AD multi-region).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    could not be tested in this study because GSE157827 covers only PFC and the SEA-AD multi-region atlas (Synapse syn64410371; [19]) was not fetched for this analysis

    Adjudication note

    Single-region atlas; multi-region data never fetched.

  4. OTF1on the fly
    Not testable

    LAMA2->integrin (microglia->astrocyte) disruption reflects pericellular-matrix change and tracks Braak stage as microglia shift to DAM.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    this should be tested in SEA-AD where continuous neuropathology scores are available

    Adjudication note

    Needs Braak-resolved data; SEA-AD never fetched.

  5. OTF2on the fly
    Not testable

    JAM2->ITGB1 (endothelial->excitatory neuron) elevation reflects Braak-dependent BBB breakdown.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    in a multi-donor dataset with both BBB markers and Braak staging

    Adjudication note

    No Braak-staged dataset used; JAM2->ITGB1 only nominal p=0.021 uncorrected in GSE157827.

  6. OTF3on the fly
    Not run

    Reformulated H2: NicheNet downstream targets of top disrupted L-R pairs are enriched in GWAS-locus regulatory modules.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    This reformulation of H2 is the principal actionable next step.

    Adjudication note

    Never run (different framework needed); data available.

  7. OTF4on the fly
    Not testable

    Relative ranking of ECM vs complement/SPP1 axes is real (Delta=0.662, p=0.001) but absolute disruption needs larger n (SEA-AD).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    SEA-AD with n > 400 donors would test this definitively.

    Adjudication note

    Present only in an EXECUTE-stage graph update (not merged into the knowledge graph); larger cohort never fetched.

  8. OTF5on the fly
    Not run

    MDK->ALK (endothelial->endothelial, log2FC -1.90) is a novel AD-associated loss of vascular neuroprotective signalling.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    MDK is a heparin-binding growth factor with neuroprotective roles

    Adjudication note

    Only in stage 9 graph-update record (not in knowledge graph); flagged cheap to test, never followed up.

  9. OTF6on the fly
    Not run

    SEMA5A->PLXNA3/PLXNA1 (microglia->astrocyte/neuron) reduction reflects axon-guidance disruption contributing to synaptic pruning deficits.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1 OTF6

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Semaphorin 5A is implicated in neural circuit refinement

    Adjudication note

    Only in stage 9 graph-update record (not in knowledge graph); never followed up.

alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1

AD8 hypotheses, 6 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 323 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    RORB+ vs RORB- EC excitatory neurons: CACNA1C or CACNA1D up AND CALB1 or PVALB down (BH-FDR<0.05), sign reproduced in second atlas.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 verdict: NOT SUPPORTED.** No gene reaches BH-FDR < 0.05.

    Adjudication note

    Latest (008, GSE147528 primary, 2,009 RORB+ cells/10 donors): CACNA1C/D opposite sign, CIs include 0; PVALB log2FC -1.18 CI excludes 0 but FDR 0.865 (t-test NaN issue). Report calls it a powered negative. Atlas roles swapped vs plan (GSE138852 had only 16 RORB+ cells).

  2. H2
    Not supported

    ISR module score in RORB+ EC neurons increases with Braak stage (slope>0, p<0.05, CI excl. 0), preceding RORB+ loss.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    failing the pre-registered H2 criterion of a positive slope at p < 0.05

    Adjudication note

    Slope -0.006/Braak (CI [-0.018, +0.002], p=0.213), opposite direction; n=10 donors, Braak 0/2/6 only (plan: borderline power).

  3. H3
    Inconclusive

    Exploratory: one vulnerability program (excitability, ISR/proteostasis, mitochondrial) separates RORB+ from RORB- more strongly than others (Cohen's d, >0.3 SD).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    An exploratory excitability gene module score is positive in direction (d = +0.269) but spans zero at the donor level of inference (approximate CI [−0.362, +0.900])

    Adjudication note

    Excitability had the largest |d| but below the 0.3 SD benchmark; cell-level bootstrap CIs anti-conservative, donor-level CI spans 0. Knowledge-graph node ('excitability module higher') = supported (discrepancy).

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Exploratory: RORB+ EC excitatory subcluster recoverable at Leiden 0.6-1.2 in both GSE138852 and GSE147528 with >80% consistent assignment.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    This is a **Tier-A negative finding**: the primary atlas does not contain enough RORB+ neurons for valid pseudobulk DE

    Adjudication note

    GSE138852: 16 RORB+ nuclei, 1/6 pools >=5 cells (pre-registered Tier-A negative). Leiden resolution sweep never run (OMP crash); threshold-based annotation used. Knowledge-graph status = refuted.

  5. OTF1on the fly
    Inconclusive

    ISR module is LOWER in RORB+ than RORB- EC neurons (at all Braak stages), counter to the ISR-driven vulnerability model.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 OTF1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The ISR module score was lower in RORB+ than RORB- neurons (d = −0.056, cell-level CI [−0.100, −0.008]; approximate donor-level CI [−0.678, +0.566]; Fig. 5a)

    Adjudication note

    Knowledge-graph status = supported (cell-level CI); donor-level CI spans 0. 'At all Braak stages' not tested stage-stratified.

  6. OTF2on the fly
    Not supported

    Re-analysis restricted to GSE147528 (2,009 RORB+ cells) will have power for H1; test whether CACNA1C/D reach FDR<0.05 there.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 OTF2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    CACNA1C and CACNA1D show small NEGATIVE log2FC (opposite the H1 prediction of upregulation in RORB+).

    Adjudication note

    Acted on in EXECUTE stage 8 (atlas switch); CACNA1C/D FDR=1.00.

  7. OTF3on the fly
    Not run

    Elevated excitability module in RORB+ neurons is driven by non-calcium genes (SCN1A, SCN8A, HCN1).

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 OTF3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    per-gene identification of driver genes within the module has not been performed

    Adjudication note

    Data available; not run.

  8. OTF4on the fly
    Not run

    PVALB downregulation in RORB+ neurons (log2FC -1.18) reaches BH-FDR<0.05 under pydeseq2.

    Evidence and adjudication for alzheimer-rorb-ec-vulnerability-r1 OTF4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    For the pseudobulk DE, use pydeseq2 (once OMP issues are resolved) which handles sparse genes more robustly than the simple t-test.

    Adjudication note

    Technical: pydeseq2 not run because of native OMP/BLAS library crashes on the analysis platform.

ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2

PD6 hypotheses, 6 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 262 KB
  1. H1
    Not testable

    Lysosomal-convergence score log2(LRRK2)-log2(GBA1) identifies the most PD-depleted DA subtype in Kamath 2022 SN atlas (AUROC>=0.70, CI>0.5, beats random pair).

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H1 is INCONCLUSIVE because the Kamath 2022 SN snRNA-seq (GSE178265, approximately 400,000 nuclei) requires dbGaP controlled-access approval

    Adjudication note

    dbGaP controlled access; only descriptive surrogate (GSE184950, 4 samples), AUROC never computed.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    TFEB targets (LAMP2A, CTSD, CTSB, ATP6AP1, MCOLN1) >=4/5 down with gene-set FDR<=0.10 in BOTH GBA1-N370S and LRRK2-G2019S iPSC-DA vs isogenic controls (+synergy arm).

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The primary analysis could not be executed as pre-registered because none of the five TFEB target genes appear in the NanoString NS_HS_NEUROPATH_V1.0 panel of GSE167335

    Adjudication note

    Report/analysis label 'NOT SUPPORTED' and graph = refuted, but this rests on a post-hoc V-ATPase surrogate (8/9 up, donor-level permutation p=0.333, N=2 donors). GBA1-N370S arm blocked (no isogenic dataset); synergy arm untestable.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    TFEB-target composite correlates with alpha-syn protein (proteomics) in iPSC-DA (Spearman r>0.40, perm p<0.05) (+ pharmacological reversal arm).

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H3 is BLOCKED: no matched iPSC-DA RNA-seq + lysosomal proteomics dataset with simultaneous measurement of both modalities was accessible.

    Adjudication note

    Reversal arm also untested (no treatment data).

  4. OTF1on the fly
    Inconclusive

    LRRK2-G2019S iPSC-DA neurons show compensatory upregulation of V-ATPase subunit genes (partially reversed by MLi-2).

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 OTF1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    this design is fundamentally underpowered for significance testing.

    Adjudication note

    8/9 genes up, mean log2FC +0.485 (CI -0.454 to 1.471), exact donor permutation p=0.333 = minimum achievable at N=2+2. The knowledge-graph node marked supported came from the pseudo-replicated stage 3 analysis; the latest stage 8 node = inconclusive. MLi-2 reversal part never testable (no data).

  5. OTF2on the fly
    Not testable

    GBA1-N370S cells (exhausted compensation) show V-ATPase DOWNregulation, distinguishing two phases of lysosomal dysfunction.

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 OTF2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The GBA1 N370S arm of H2 could not be tested: no GBA1 N370S isogenic iPSC-DA RNA-seq dataset was found in accessible GEO deposits

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  6. OTF3on the fly
    Not testable

    N=2 donors/group NanoString cannot reach significance; a properly powered test needs N>=5 donors with whole-transcriptome LRRK2-G2019S iPSC-DA data.

    Evidence and adjudication for ideate-parkinson-mechanism-r2 OTF3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    N ≥ 5 independent biological replicates at the donor level is necessary

    Adjudication note

    Methodological/future-data statement; no suitable dataset fetched.

neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1

CROSS6 hypotheses, 6 evaluatedFinal report
  1. H1
    Partial

    Microglial LDAM module (LGALS3, CD9, GPNMB, NPC2) significantly elevated in EACH of AD, DLB and PDD vs NCI in GSE303823 (shared cross-dementia feature).

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Per the pre-registered decision rule, this outcome is classified as **partial sharing (DLB+PDD)**

    Adjudication note

    DLB g=1.55 & PDD g=2.64 (FDR 0.014); AD g=1.20 FDR 0.343 (n=4 vs 4, cannot reach FDR without perfect separation). Pre-specified DAM2 dissociation control failed (DAM2 co-elevated), weakening LDAM specificity. Graph per-arm nodes: DLB/PDD supported, AD inconclusive.

  2. H2
    Partial

    H1 call reproduced by two orthogonal methods: (a) Leiden LDAM-like subcluster compositional shift (scCODA); (b) AUCell per-donor scores.

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The H2a result, as reported, is best understood as a threshold-sensitivity restatement of H1 rather than independent corroboration.

    Adjudication note

    OmiCairn verdict 'corroborates' (rule formally met) but H2a was a semi-circular threshold proxy (no Leiden/scCODA; 29-gene extraction) and AUCell reached FDR<0.05 for no disease, AD sign discordant. Alternative: INCONCLUSIVE.

  3. H3
    Not supported

    LDAM signature locked on GSE303823 transfers without refitting to held-out SEA-AD DLPFC and separates high vs low Braak donors (AUC CI lower bound >0.5).

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Per the pre-registration, a CI spanning 0.5 constitutes a null outcome

    Adjudication note

    AUC=0.60, CI [0.45, 0.76], p=0.093, n=80 (68 high / 12 low pathology); report notes class imbalance means 'not powered evidence of absence'. Knowledge-graph status = inconclusive.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    LGALS3/GPNMB lipid-droplet sub-program enriched in APOE4 carriers in GSE303823 (replicating SEA-AD JT p=0.006), with SEA-AD MTG replication.

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The APOE4-LDAM association is not replicated in this independent analysis (Fig. 4b–c).

    Adjudication note

    GSE303823 arm UNTESTABLE (no APOE metadata) -> that arm is NOT_TESTED_DATA; verdict rests on the pre-registered SEA-AD MTG arm: MWU p=0.150, r=-0.20 (opposite). Note SEA-AD MTG is the same object as the prior finding, not an independent cohort.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Negative control: ECM-integrin (LAMA2/COL4A2->ITGAV/ITGA6/ITGB8) disruption is AD-specific (AD g<0 FDR<0.05; DLB/PDD CIs include 0).

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H5 verdict is **inconclusive**: neither the expected AD-specific disruption nor a shared-disruption pattern was detected.

    Adjudication note

    All contrasts near zero (FDR=1.0); no cell-type annotation, 29-gene extraction.

  6. H6
    Partial

    Sensitivity decomposition: H1 effect not driven by microglial proportion, survives covariates (PMI/age/sex), marker-set and resolution perturbation.

    Evidence and adjudication for neurodeg-microglia-convergence-r1 H6

    Evidence quoted from the run

    preserved DLB elevation (g=1.87, 95% CI [1.33, 3.79]) but rendered PDD statistically ambiguous (g=0.84, 95% CI [−0.11, 2.20])

    Adjudication note

    Proportion adjustment and threshold sweep robust (DLB, PDD), but PDD attenuated with 6-gene set and PMI/age/sex covariate adjustment not feasible (absent metadata).

parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedNo final report
  1. H1
    Supported

    SNCA-weighted SIR (model B) recovers Braak rank order of t_peak across 5 regions (Spearman rho>=0.70, bootstrap CI lower bound >0).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Pre-registered threshold: ρ ≥ 0.70 with CI excluding 0. Both criteria met. **H1 is supported.**

    Adjudication note

    rho=1.000, degenerate CI [1,1], perm p=0.0083. Caveat: literature-fallback (murine) connectivity, connectome-only model A also rho=1.0 (ceiling). Superseded sibling run parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 with Allen connectivity found H1 NOT SUPPORTED. This run never reached write/review.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Removing SNCA weighting (model A) degrades rho by >=0.30 vs model B (paired bootstrap CI excl. 0).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Δρ(B − A) = 0.000 (95% CI [0.000, 0.000]; p_directional = 0.998)

    Adjudication note

    Both models at ceiling.

  3. H3
    Inconclusive

    Within PFC, model predicts excitatory neurons reach infection threshold first; model top-3 overlaps >=2 with LAMDA pSyn-enriched top-3.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Vocabulary mismatch (pSyn+ TrueID format not matching profile index barcodes) forced use of all 48,702 profile rows, biasing LAMDA top-3 toward abundant cell types

    Adjudication note

    OmiCairn: NOT SUPPORTED (overlap 0, EN ranked 3rd). But LAMDA side is an all-spots proxy, and model PFC top-3 contains DMNX_Neu/GPI_Neu (annotation artefact, judged uninterpretable in sibling run parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2). Strict reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  4. H4
    Supported

    Ablating DMNX->GPi edge shifts predicted rank of at least one region by >1 position.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Maximum rank shift = 3 > pre-registered threshold of > 1.

    Adjudication note

    Deterministic model result under literature-fallback connectivity; reversed (0 shift) in sibling run parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 with Allen connectivity.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Model-family comparison: rank connectome-only (A), SNCA-weighted (B, primary), cell-autonomous (C) by Braak rho.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Models A and B tie at ρ = 1.000; Model C achieves ρ = 0.400.

    Adjudication note

    Descriptive; A=B at ceiling, B-C Delta 0.601 CI [0, 2] p=0.336.

parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 347 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    SNCA-weighted SIR (model B) recovers proxy Braak rank order [1,3,5,5,6] of t_peak across 5 regions (rho>=0.7, bootstrap CI lower bound >0).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    not meeting the pre-registered criterion that requires CI exclusion of zero

    Adjudication note

    Latest EXECUTE stage 19: rho=0.711 (meets point threshold), CI [-0.304, 1.000], perm p=0.094; n=5 regions, plan conceded ~50-65% power -> borderline INCONCLUSIVE.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Removing SNCA weighting (model A, connectome-only) degrades rho by >=0.3 relative to model B.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    the observed Δρ is negative and the CI does not exclude zero. H2 is NOT SUPPORTED.

    Adjudication note

    Delta rho(B-A) = -0.207 (CI -1.304 to 0.913); connectome-only A outperforms B (0.918; 1.000 when independently optimised, post hoc).

  3. H3
    Inconclusive

    Within PFC (cingulate proxy) excitatory L5/6 neurons reach infection threshold first; model top-3 overlaps >=2 with LAMDA Lewy-burdened top-3 (Fisher p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H3 is not biologically interpretable; the following analysis is reported for pre-registration completeness only.

    Adjudication note

    OmiCairn headline 'H3 is NOT SUPPORTED' (overlap 0, Fisher p=1.0), but report itself deems it uninterpretable (DMNX_Neu/GPI_Neu annotation artefacts in PFC; sub-SIR never reached threshold).

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Ablating DMNX->GPi edge shifts peak-time rank by >1 position for >=1 region.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Zero rank displacement (max |Δrank| = 0) was observed across all five regions after removing the DMNX→GPi edge (Fig. 5a).

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  5. H5
    Not supported

    Model-family comparison: connectome-only (A), SNCA-weighted (B, primary), cell-autonomous (C) ranked by Braak rho; A or C beating B reported as-is.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-asyn-propagation-r2 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The three model variants ranked as: Model A (ρ = 0.918, CI [0.745, 1.000]) > Model B (ρ = 0.711, CI [−0.304, 1.000]) > Model C (ρ undefined; Fig. 5b,c,d).

    Adjudication note

    UNCERTAIN mapping: H5 is descriptive ('always reportable'); verdict reflects that the primary model B did not rank best (inversion). Pairwise Delta CIs include 0; alternative INCONCLUSIVE.

parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    >=5 L-R pairs PD-upregulated in both peripheral CD8+T->monocyte (GSE223138 PBMC) and brain CD8+T-like->CNS macrophage (Fullard 2024), permutation p<0.01.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    API Error: The socket connection was closed unexpectedly.

    Adjudication note

    EXECUTE stage 3 terminated on a connection error before writing results (no results/analysis records); run halted and was never re-executed.

  2. H2
    Not run

    Shared L-R pairs enriched for Hong 2025 28 MR-implicated immune genes (BH q<0.05, hypergeometric).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    API Error: The socket connection was closed unexpectedly.

    Adjudication note

    EXECUTE stage 3 terminated on a connection error before writing results (no results/analysis records); run halted and was never re-executed.

  3. H3
    Not run

    Per-donor peripheral CD8+T MR-gene score rank-correlates with brain T-cell module score (Spearman rho>0.3, p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    API Error: The socket connection was closed unexpectedly.

    Adjudication note

    EXECUTE stage 3 terminated on a connection error before writing results (no results/analysis records); run halted and was never re-executed. Plan already expected H3 likely INAPPLICABLE (no donor overlap between PBMC and post-mortem brain).

  4. H4
    Not run

    Direction-specificity control: reverse-direction inference yields fewer shared pairs and permutation p>=0.05.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    API Error: The socket connection was closed unexpectedly.

    Adjudication note

    EXECUTE stage 3 terminated on a connection error before writing results (no results/analysis records); run halted and was never re-executed.

  5. H5
    Not run

    Method-consensus robustness: LIANA consensus shared-pair count within +/-2 of CellPhoneDB, NATMI, scTalk counts.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    API Error: The socket connection was closed unexpectedly.

    Adjudication note

    EXECUTE stage 3 terminated on a connection error before writing results (no results/analysis records); run halted and was never re-executed.

parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 4 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 274 KB
  1. H1
    Supported

    >=5 L-R pairs PD-up in both PBMC CD8+T->monocyte (GSE223138) and brain CD8+T->microglia (Ma 2025 SN; fallback Fullard), permutation p<0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 SUPPORTED:** 9 L-R pairs are shared between PBMC CD8+T→monocyte and brain CD8+T→CNS macrophage PD-upregulated top-100 lists

    Adjudication note

    Rule met (9 pairs; p<1/10,000). Caveats: brain arm = Fullard non-SN fallback (no SN tissue); NATMI substituted for LIANA rank_aggregate (segmentation fault); 1,000 cells/donor subsample; hardcoded donor-disease fallback mapping.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Ligands/receptors of shared pairs enriched (q<0.05) among 28 Hong 2025 MR-implicated immune genes

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Decision: H2 NOT SUPPORTED (p = 0.346).**

    Adjudication note

    Only 18 genes; run notes low power (OR=2.56, CI 0.058-18.0).

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Per-donor peripheral signature scores correlate with brain T-cell module scores (peripheral-foreshadow)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Status: INAPPLICABLE.** Per the scope stage (data profile), the parkinson-tcell-foothold cross-workspace results record contains only atlas-level summary statistics

    Adjudication note

    No per-donor brain vector available.

  4. H4
    Supported

    Reverse direction (monocyte->CD8+T, microglia->CD8+T) does NOT reach H1 threshold (<5 pairs, perm p>=0.05): direction-specificity

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "H4_reverse_permutation_p": 0.0528,

    Adjudication note

    DISCREPANCY: pre-registered rule (reverse count <5 AND p>=0.05) is literally met (count=4, p=0.0528), but analysis/report label it 'BORDERLINE'/'inconclusive', apparently misreading the p>=0.05 clause. Substantively weak: reverse p is near-significant. Reviewer may prefer INCONCLUSIVE.

  5. H5
    Not run

    Per-method shared-pair counts (CellPhoneDB, NATMI, scTalk, CellChat, Connectome) within +/-2 of LIANA consensus

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-cellchat-immune-axis-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    All 5 H5 "method" counts use NATMI expr_prod columns with different sorting — not true independent methods.

    Adjudication note

    Run/report call H5 SUPPORTED (max deviation 0), but independent methods were never run (LIANA rank_aggregate segfault) — proxy-only, technical failure.

parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1

PD6 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 416 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    Mean cosine between in-silico KO shift (10 GWAS genes) and PD-minus-control DA shift >0.30 with permutation p<0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 verdict: NOT SUPPORTED at the pre-registered threshold** (threshold = cosine > 0.30). The mean cosine of 0.025 does not reach 0.30.

    Adjudication note

    Permutation component met (p=0.001 vs null mean -0.135) but cosine CI [-0.067,0.114] includes 0; residualized delta p=0.43. CellOracle not run (velocyto build failure) - expression-stratification proxy; DMNX_Neu fallback instead of SNpc. Could arguably be PARTIALLY_SUPPORTED (one of two rule components met).

  2. H2
    Not supported

    Per-gene KO alignment correlates with fine-mapping PIP (Spearman rho>0.4, p<0.05; n=10)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H2 NOT SUPPORTED** (ρ threshold = 0.4, p threshold < 0.05).

    Adjudication note

    rho=0.042; pre-flagged ~30% power.

  3. H3
    Supported

    LRRK2-KO top-100 predicted targets enriched for Hemedan 2024 prodromal module (BH q<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H3 SUPPORTED** (q < 0.05). LRRK2-KO predicted targets are significantly enriched in the Hemedan 2024 Boolean-PD prodromal regulatory module (FDR q = 0.007, FE = 4.7×).

    Adjudication note

    Overlap is 5 genes (SNCA, LRRK2, GAK, CTSB, SCARB2) in an 11-gene HVG-restricted module; overlapping genes are themselves GWAS/KO genes (possible circularity). Proxy KO method, not CellOracle.

  4. H4a
    Supported

    SNCA-KO predicts protective shift: cosine with PD-vs-ctrl vector >0, permutation p<0.05

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H4a

    Evidence quoted from the run

    - **SNCA-KO**: cosine = +0.235, permutation p = 0.001 (one-tailed: cosine ≥ 0.235 in null). **H4a SUPPORTED**

    Adjudication note

    Literal rule met. Interpretive incoherence: positive cosine means KO shifts TOWARD the PD state, yet text calls it 'protective'.

  5. H4b
    Supported

    HBB-KO negative control predicts null shift (|cosine|<0.1)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H4b

    Evidence quoted from the run

    - **HBB-KO**: |cosine| = 0.032 < 0.1 threshold. **H4b SUPPORTED**

    Adjudication note

    Report notes residualized HBB cosine rises to 0.236; raw (primary) value used.

  6. H5
    Not run

    H1 mean cosine changes <=0.1 between Adams-derived ATAC base-GRN and Zenodo midbrain reference base-GRN

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-celloracle-ko-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The Zenodo midbrain reference base-GRN comparison was not executed (CellOracle package unavailable due to velocyto build failure; Zenodo download was not attempted).

    Adjudication note

    Surrogate raw-vs-residualized comparison gave |delta|=0.118 (>0.1); report reports H5 'not formally supported' on the surrogate.

parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4

PD5 hypotheses, 4 evaluatedNo final report
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    AGTR1+ DA fraction depleted in PD (log2FC in [-2.6,-0.95], BH-FDR<0.05) in all 3 replication atlases (Wang, Adams, Fullard SNpc)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    adams_2024,0.9761754643911956,-0.9433853104864593,2.6413861241359333,0.8454192090937935,1.0,3,10,91,2703,False,False,-1.6

    Adjudication note

    Formal rule failed (0/2 atlases pass; Adams log2FC +0.98, Wang 0.0, FDR=1.0) but only 3 PD vs 10 ctrl (Adams, young+aged ctrl pooled) and 5 vs 4 (Wang) donors vs planned 14/8 and 23/9; Fullard never fetched. Severely underpowered; no analysis summary written. Strict reading would be NOT_SUPPORTED.

  2. H2
    Inconclusive

    TP53 and NR2F2 modules upregulated in residual AGTR1+ DA cells (BH-FDR<0.05) in >=2/3 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    adams_2024,tp53,-0.887683905934536,,,0.1393939393939394,0.1393939393939394,False,194

    Adjudication note

    Only Adams evaluable (Wang/Fullard no values); >=2-atlas rule cannot be satisfied; underpowered.

  3. H3
    Not run

    Locked consensus AGTR1+ panel stratifies PD vs ctrl in blind Martirosyan 2024 (AUC>=0.75, CI lower >0.5)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    ERROR loading Martirosyan count table: could not convert string to float: 'MIR1302-2HG'

    Adjudication note

    Data were downloaded; failure was a parsing bug (results record labels it fetch_failed).

  4. H4
    Inconclusive

    H1 depletion sign and FDR pass stable across >=4/6 Leiden resolutions in each atlas where H1 holds

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "atlases_stable_ge4_resolutions": 0

    Adjudication note

    Conditional on H1 holding, which it did not; Adams FDR fails at all resolutions (and resolution-scan log2FC ~-0.55 disagrees in sign with primary +0.98); AGTR1+ not found in Wang at any resolution.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Per-donor decomposition: AGTR1+ within-DA fraction (layer c) dominates signal reduction vs total nuclei / DA fraction

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r4 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    adams_2024,0.09759000729485331,0.7511151158040675,0.04879500364742666,0.8742219227185322,0.26911285945377744,0.373950482581387,0.34203517720054455,0.2526683107916884

    Adjudication note

    Descriptive; no layer significant in either atlas (all p>0.25); no dominance statement was written.

parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 270 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    Kamath AGTR1+ DA subtype recovers and is depleted in PD (log2FC in [-2.6,-0.95], BH-FDR<0.05) in Wang, Adams and Fullard SNpc

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The AGTR1+ cluster was not recoverable in either atlas (replication rate 0.0/2, 95% Wilson CI [0.0%, 65.8%], permutation p=1.0)

    Adjudication note

    Formal rule failed (report frames as 'pre-registered null') but attributes failure to DA yield: 52 and 27 DA cells, Adams 2 PD donors, Fullard SNpc absent. Strict reading would be NOT_SUPPORTED.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    TP53 and NR2F2 stress modules upregulated in residual AGTR1+ DA cells (BH-FDR<0.05) in >=2/3 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H2 cannot be formally evaluated because no AGTR1+ subcluster was recovered in either atlas (Fig. 4).

    Adjudication note

    Only a TP53 proxy on all DA cells (FDR 0.190); NR2F2 gene set not cached. Report labels H2 'inconclusive'.

  3. H3
    Not supported

    Locked consensus AGTR1+ panel classifies Martirosyan 2024 PD vs ctrl donors with AUC>=0.75, CI lower >0.5

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The ROC AUC was 0.419 (95% bootstrap CI 0.217–0.644; Wilcoxon p=0.471; Fig. 5), falling below the pre-registered threshold of 0.75

    Adjudication note

    Panel derived from atlases with only 27-52 DA cells.

  4. H4
    Inconclusive

    H1 sign and FDR stable across >=4/6 Leiden resolutions within each atlas that passed H1

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    (0 stable resolutions in both atlases; Fig. 2)

    Adjudication note

    Conditional on H1 passing; no atlas passed, so robustness of a non-existent effect is undefined.

  5. H5
    Not supported

    Decomposition of DA loss: AGTR1+-within-DA fraction (component c) is the dominant driver vs total nuclei/DA fraction

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    the dominant component of PD-vs-control DA-related change was component b — the DA-cluster fraction within total nuclei — with log2FC=−1.325 (95% CI −3.313 to −0.605)

    Adjudication note

    Descriptive; component b dominant in both atlases, component c CI spans zero; very low cell counts.

parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    Donor-level LOO AUC: best FM (Geneformer/scGPT) beats log-CPM-PCA-LR by dAUC>=0.05 (CI>0, DeLong p<0.05) with AUC>0.75 (Wang 2024)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) (Geneformer embedding still running); successive EXECUTE stages results/ directories empty; no results record. Hypotheses taken from latest plan the PLAN-stage hypothesis list.

  2. H2
    Not run

    Leiden on Geneformer embeddings recovers an AGTR1-high cluster (>=1.5x, silhouette>=0.10) in Wang PD donors

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) (Geneformer embedding still running); successive EXECUTE stages results/ directories empty; no results record.

  3. H3
    Not run

    Geneformer fine-tuned 1 epoch achieves held-out AUC>=0.7 on Adams; random-init transformer <=0.6

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) (Geneformer embedding still running); successive EXECUTE stages results/ directories empty; no results record.

  4. H4
    Not run

    dAUC stable within +/-0.05 across 5K/25K/50K nuclei-per-donor subsamples

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) (Geneformer embedding still running); successive EXECUTE stages results/ directories empty; no results record.

  5. H5
    Not run

    Wang-fitted FM donor embeddings achieve zero-shot AUC>=0.65 (CI lower>=0.50) on Adams

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) (Geneformer embedding still running); successive EXECUTE stages results/ directories empty; no results record.

parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4

PD5 hypotheses, 4 evaluatedFinal report
  1. H1
    Not supported

    Geneformer-V2 or scGPT donor-level LOO AUC>0.75 AND dAUC>=0.05 over log-CPM-PCA-LR with DeLong p<0.05 (Fullard multi-region)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 decision: NOT SUPPORTED.**

    Adjudication note

    GF AUC 0.775 vs baseline 0.749; dAUC +0.026 (CI -0.066 to +0.118, p=0.290). scGPT never run (package/weights missing, HF 401). Report itself notes ~19% power and 'more precisely described as inconclusive'.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    AGTR1+ subcluster recovery in FM embeddings

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Inapplicable: no dopaminergic neurons in the Fullard atlas.

    Adjudication note

    Declared inapplicable already at plan stage.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Geneformer fine-tuned on Kamath SNpc generalises to Wang and Adams (AUC>=0.70) and beats from-scratch by >=0.10

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Deferred: GSE178265 (Kamath) count matrix absent. H3 inapplicable in this iteration.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  4. H4
    Not run

    dAUC stable within +/-0.05 across 5K/25K/50K nuclei-per-donor subsamples

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Pre-registered subsampling levels (5K/25K/50K cells/donor) were not feasible on CPU/MPS hardware. Evaluated at 25/50/100 cells/donor

    Adjudication note

    Compute-limited proxy at 25/50/100 cells (50-500x below plan); run/report declare H4 'STABLE' (range 0.044) on the proxy levels, all dAUC CIs span 0. Could be read as SUPPORTED-on-proxy.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Fullard-trained FM embeddings zero-shot AUC>=0.65 with CI lower>=0.50 on BOTH Wang and Adams

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-foundation-embedding-r4 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    | Geneformer (zero-shot) | 0.694 | [0.324, 1.000] | **MET** |

    Adjudication note

    DISCREPANCY: run/report say threshold MET, but pre-registered rule also requires CI lower bound >=0.50 (0.324 fails) on both atlases; Wang arm deferred (tar extraction pending); n=13 Adams. Baseline zero-shot AUC 0.944 exceeds GF. Strict reading would be NOT_SUPPORTED.

parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedNo final report
  1. H1
    Not supported

    >=15 KEGG modules shared between Wallen 2022 top-100 PD-enriched MetaCyc pathways and Fullard DMNX top-100 enriched modules, hypergeometric p<0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H1: k=3, hypergeometric_p=0.3533, permutation_p=0.361, expected=2.11

    Adjudication note

    Module universe only 131, Fullard side mapped to 6 modules.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    7-gene vagal-afferent module DE in DMNX (FDR<0.05) AND anti-correlated with SCFA-producer depletion (rho<-0.3, perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "module_de_fdr": 0.995650997579099,

    Adjudication note

    Correlation arm implemented as module-vs-disease-label Spearman, not vs SCFA abundance.

  3. H3
    Partial

    DMNX microglia upregulate TLR4/TLR2/CD14/NLRP3 module (FDR<0.05) AND correlate with Wallen LPS-producer abundance AND DMNX effect > SNpc, V1

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "note": "SNpc/V1 microglia not streamed in this run to conserve memory; DMNX only"

    Adjudication note

    Pipeline output 'SUPPORTED' (module FDR 0.011, z-corr perm p 0.012), but the 'cross-modality' correlation was computed between module score and disease label (code never uses LPS-producer signature) and spatial-specificity arm not run. Only DE component genuinely met. Re-run 093856 found FDR 0.514.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Storm 2025 MR-causal PD proteins (fallback: Hallqvist 2024 panel) over-represented in Wallen PD-enriched bacterial pathways (perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H4: observed=0, expected=2.82, p=1

    Adjudication note

    Pre-registered Hallqvist 8-protein surrogate used.

  5. H5
    Supported

    Negative-control modules (catecholamine, ferroptosis, cuproptosis) do NOT show H1-level alignment (<15 modules, p>=0.01)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r2 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "h5_verdict": "all_below_threshold"

    Adjudication note

    Specificity control holds but is moot since H1 itself failed.

parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 364 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    >=15 bridging KEGG modules shared between Wallen 2022 top-100 MetaCyc pathways and Fullard DMNX top-100 enriched modules (131-module catalogue), hypergeometric p<0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Observed shared KEGG module count between K_w (33 Wallen-derived modules) and K_f (30 Fullard-derived modules) = 10, below the pre-registered threshold of 15.

    Adjudication note

    Hypergeometric p=0.175.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    7-gene vagal-afferent module DE in DMNX pseudobulk (FDR<0.05) AND anti-correlated with Wallen SCFA-producer abundance (rho<-0.3, perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H2 NOT SUPPORTED.** BH-FDR = 0.463 > 0.05.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  3. H3
    Not supported

    DMNX Micro_PVM TLR/LPS-response module up in PD (FDR<0.05) AND correlates with Wallen LPS-producer abundance

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H3 NOT SUPPORTED.** BH-FDR = 0.514 > 0.05.

    Adjudication note

    Cross-cohort correlation arm could not be formally tested (no shared donors).

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Hallqvist 2024 plasma proteins (pre-registered fallback for Storm 2025 MR) over-represented in Wallen PD-enriched pathway modules (perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H4 NOT SUPPORTED.** Permutation p = 0.373 > 0.05.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  5. H5
    Supported

    Negative-control modules (catecholamine, ferroptosis, cuproptosis) show no significant alignment (all hypergeometric p>=0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-gut-brain-axis-r4 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H5 PASSED (all controls null).**

    Adjudication note

    All p=1.0; specificity control moot given H1 null.

parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    >=3 non-cortical (region x cell-type) combos show positive LAMDA enrichment in PD (BH-FDR<0.05, d>0.25) in Fullard atlas

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) while loading DMNX expression; EXECUTE-stage results empty, no results record.

  2. H2
    Not run

    LAMDA module score in PD follows Braak ordering DMNX>=SNpc>=GPi>=M1>=V1 (Spearman rho>0, perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) while loading DMNX expression; EXECUTE-stage results empty, no results record.

  3. H3
    Not run

    LAMDA higher in excitatory/projection neurons than inhibitory in >=2/5 regions (BH p<0.05, r>0.10)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) while loading DMNX expression; EXECUTE-stage results empty, no results record.

  4. H4
    Not run

    LAMDA sub-program co-activation higher in cortex than subcortex (perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) while loading DMNX expression; EXECUTE-stage results empty, no results record.

  5. H5
    Not run

    Orbitofrontal positive control: LAMDA higher in PD/PDD/DLB vs ctrl in Goralski CosMx (p<0.001)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r2 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No verbatim quote was recorded for this verdict.

    Adjudication note

    Run halted mid-execute (no active process; likely superseded by a relaunch) while loading DMNX expression; EXECUTE-stage results empty, no results record.

parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 303 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    LAMDA module generalises to non-cortical regions: >=3 non-cortical region x cell-type pairs with PD>ctrl at FDR<0.05 and Cohen's d>0.25 (Fullard atlas).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    All effect sizes negative (PD < control). Primary count: 0/22 noncortical pairs (threshold >= 3).

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  2. H2
    Not supported

    LAMDA enrichment in PD follows a Braak-stage regional gradient (region-ordered Spearman, permutation p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Region-ordered Spearman rho = 0.500, one-sided permutation p = 0.825.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  3. H3
    Partial

    LAMDA higher in EN vs IN in >=2/3 cortical regions AND in >=1 subcortical projection-neuron type (DMNX_Neu/GPI_Neu) vs background.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Result: CORTEX SUPPORTED; SUBCORTEX NOT SUPPORTED**

    Adjudication note

    Cortical arm met (d=0.87-1.12); subcortical arm (DMNX FDR=0.216, GPi FDR=0.811) failed, so the AND rule is not fully met. Report notes EN>IN tested in PD donors only and may hold in controls too (not disease-specific).

  4. H4
    Not supported

    LAMDA sub-programs (synaptic, mito, proteostasis, vesicle, immune) show cortical vs subcortical dissociation.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Max cortical vs subcortical Cohen's d difference: 0.171 (below 0.20 threshold).

    Adjudication note

    Executed test (correlation d-difference >0.20) deviates from the pre-registered LME 3-way interaction at FDR<0.05; results record lists sub-program genes with in_lamda_200=0.

  5. H5
    Not testable

    Positive control: LAMDA higher in pSyn+ vs pSyn- CosMx cells of held-out Goralski orbitofrontal data (Wilcoxon p<0.001).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lamda-multiregion-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Orbitofrontal CosMx count matrix not present in Zenodo 10729767 deposit.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    Top-50 LINCS L1000 reversers of DMNX_Neu PD signature include >=5 compounds with prior PD-repositioning evidence (hypergeometric q<0.01).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted: successive EXECUTE stages produced no results (stage 4 log ends in a connection error); run later closed as halted and superseded by parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4. Hypotheses from PLAN stage 2 (latest plan).

  2. H2
    Not run

    >=2 of 5 pre-specified PD-relevant drug classes enriched in top-50 reversers (Fisher, BH q<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted: successive EXECUTE stages produced no results (stage 4 log ends in a connection error); run later closed as halted and superseded by parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4. Hypotheses from PLAN stage 2 (latest plan).

  3. H3
    Not run

    DMNX_Neu vs Micro_PVM connectivity rankings poorly correlated (Pearson r<0.3, CI upper <0.3).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted: successive EXECUTE stages produced no results (stage 4 log ends in a connection error); run later closed as halted and superseded by parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4. Hypotheses from PLAN stage 2 (latest plan).

  4. H4
    Not run

    Neuronal-cell-line L1000 subset top-50 has >=8 compounds with prior PD evidence, more than all-lines top-50.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted: successive EXECUTE stages produced no results (stage 4 log ends in a connection error); run later closed as halted and superseded by parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4. Hypotheses from PLAN stage 2 (latest plan).

  5. H5
    Not run

    Sanity gate: levodopa/ropinirole/pramipexole/rasagiline not in top-50 reversers.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted: successive EXECUTE stages produced no results (stage 4 log ends in a connection error); run later closed as halted and superseded by parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4. Hypotheses from PLAN stage 2 (latest plan).

parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 323 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    >=5 of top-50 LINCS touchstone reversers of DMNX_Neu PD signature have prior PD repositioning evidence (hypergeometric p<0.01).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    an uninterpretable null attributable to an underpowered evidence set (M = 33; minimum M ≈ 243 required for a testable H1)

    Adjudication note

    Formally fails the rule (k=0/50, q=1.0) and the run labels it 'NOT SUPPORTED'; but the evidence set was severely limited by CLUE API HTTP 401 (access) errors and H5 gate also failed (pre-reg: H1 not valid if H5 fails). Alternative reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Top-50 reversers enriched for >=2 of 5 PD-relevant drug classes (Fisher, BH q<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    This result reflects a data-access limitation, not a biological finding, and H2 cannot be interpreted.

    Adjudication note

    Run labels 'NOT SUPPORTED', but MoA annotations were unavailable (CLUE API 401), so all classes had zero annotated members.

  3. H3
    Supported

    DMNX_Neu and Micro_PVM connectivity rankings poorly correlated (Pearson r<0.3 AND CI upper <0.3).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The pre-registered threshold (r < 0.3 AND CI upper < 0.3) is satisfied: the 95% CI upper bound (0.172) is well below 0.3.

    Adjudication note

    r=0.133 [0.094,0.172]; computed on LINCS Level 2 data substituted for pre-registered Level 5 COMPZ; H5 sanity gate borderline-failed on same data.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Neuronal-cell-line subset top-50 has >=8 PD-evidence compounds and Fisher p<0.05 vs all-lines k1.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Neuronal-cell-line (NEU/NPC/FIBRNPC) top-50: k4 = 1; all-cell-lines top-50: k1 = 0. Fisher's exact p = 0.500

    Adjudication note

    Same M=33 evidence-set limitation as H1; could be read as INCONCLUSIVE.

  5. H5
    Not supported

    Sanity gate: ropinirole and pramipexole both above median connectivity (mimicking tail), not reversers.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-lincs-reversal-r4 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H5 Decision: FAIL (borderline).**

    Adjudication note

    Ropinirole 47.8th percentile (<50th); pramipexole 53.6th; selegiline 87.2th.

parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1

PD7 hypotheses, 6 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 299 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    Composite primary: iMAT/Recon3D DA-neuron PD glycolytic flux decrease (H1a ratio<0.9, CI excl 1) AND sign concordance with Supandi 2018 (H1b).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    With n=2 PD, no meaningful bootstrap CI can be formed.

    Adjudication note

    Composite of H1a+H1b. Run labels H1 'NOT SUPPORTED' (ratio 1.000, CI [1.000,1.000]); Run executed with a 54-reaction minimal model, ATPM objective, and only 2 PD / 4 ctrl donors passing QC; review (stage 8) flagged ATPM objective as incapable of detecting glycolytic change and requested a re-execution, which (EXECUTE stage 9) did not produce the required outputs.

  2. H1a
    Inconclusive

    Bootstrap median PD/ctrl glycolytic flux ratio in DA neurons <0.9 with 95% CI excluding 1.0.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H1a

    Evidence quoted from the run

    the null primary result provides empirical evidence that minimal-model approaches with small sample sizes are insufficient for detecting cell-type-specific PD metabolic flux changes

    Adjudication note

    Observed ratio 1.000 [1.000,1.000] fails the rule literally (run: NOT SUPPORTED), but result is a model-degeneracy/n=2 artefact. Alternative reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  3. H1b
    Inconclusive

    Per-reaction flux-change signs concordant with Supandi 2018 in >=70% of shared reactions (binomial p<0.01).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H1b

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The directional labels tested by the binomial test are thus assigned to numerical noise rather than meaningful flux changes.

    Adjudication note

    Decision rule nominally met (15/18 = 83.3%, p=0.0038; run says CONFIRMED), but all glycolysis deviations are <=1e-11 (solver precision). Alternative reading: SUPPORTED (nominal).

  4. H2
    Not supported

    Top-10 TIMBR-predicted biomarker metabolites include >=4 replicated in Shao/Luo 2024 meta-analysis (hypergeometric q<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The p-value for 3/8 overlap against the 531-metabolite universe is 0.0083, but n_overlap = 3 < 4 required. H2 is not supported.

    Adjudication note

    TIMBR replaced by an iMAT exchange-flux surrogate (H2_SURROGATE).

  5. H3
    Inconclusive

    Iron-metabolism reaction flux ratio in PD DA neurons >1.1 with CI excluding 1.0.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    the inactivity is a model-architecture consequence, not a biological finding.

    Adjudication note

    All iron reactions ratio=0.000 (zero flux under ATPM objective); run labels NOT SUPPORTED. Alternative reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  6. H4
    Inconclusive

    Per-reaction flux-change direction concordant across contextualisation methods (max pairwise Spearman rho >=0.5).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The high ρ is consistent with both interpretations.

    Adjudication note

    Rule nominally met (iMAT vs E-Flux rho=0.944; run says CONFIRMED) but only 2 methods (no TIMBR) and report attributes high rho to bimodal model degeneracy. Alternative reading: SUPPORTED (nominal).

  7. H5
    Not run

    Glycolysis signal cell-type separation: compare DA neurons vs Fullard GPi neurons and Micro_PVM (descriptive).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-metabolic-flux-sn-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "fullard_access": "not_attempted",

    Adjudication note

    Fullard atlas not attempted (no data-availability reason given); replaced by same-dataset PD vs PD+PDD sensitivity surrogate (H5_SURROGATE_da_only).

parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 292 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    GPLVM 1-D latent disease-time from PPMI published summary tables correlates with time-from-diagnosis (rho>0.6, CI lower>0.4, n>=50).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 is INCONCLUSIVE.** The n < 50 requirement is not met because the fetched supplements do not contain per-visit longitudinal group-mean time series

    Adjudication note

    rho=0.430 [-0.459,0.953], n=10 (FactorAnalysis fallback; GPy unavailable). Literal rule (CI lower <0.2 => not supported) would give NOT_SUPPORTED; data limitation could also justify NOT_TESTED_DATA.

  2. H2
    Inconclusive

    Model trained without dMRI recovers free-water dMRI rank order (leave-dMRI-out rho>=0.4, CI lower>0).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H2 is formally unevaluable under the pre-registration rules

    Adjudication note

    Leave-dMRI-out rho=0.349 at n=10, CIs not estimable. Could also be read as NOT_TESTED_DATA.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    LRRK2-G2019S carriers show leftward-shifted disease-time vs sporadic PD at matched stage (d>0.5, p<0.0125).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H3 verdict: NOT EVALUABLE.** Only one LRRK2 group-mean row was recovered.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    No single modality contributes >=70% of loading on the 1-D latent (multi-modal claim).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H4 verdict: VIOLATED — proteomics accounts for ~100% of the FA loading.**

    Adjudication note

    Report attributes dominance to feature-count imbalance (31 proteomics features) at n=10, not biology.

  5. H5
    Partial

    Descriptive audit of machine-readability of 6 cited PPMI supplements (>=4/6 strong, 2-3/6 partial, <=1/6 negative).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-ppmi-trajectory-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Summary: 3 machine-readable (a), 2 PDF-table (b), 1 unreachable (c).

    Adjudication note

    Descriptive/classificatory hypothesis; 3/6 falls in pre-specified 'partial' band. Additionally 0/6 contained per-visit longitudinal group means.

parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    MOFA+ on snRNA+Visium+proteomics yields >=1 factor with >5% variance in each modality AND PD-associated (Wilcoxon p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted in PLAN (PLAN stage 3 did not complete; no completion flag); never reached EXECUTE. Hypotheses from the PLAN-stage hypothesis list (unfinalised plan).

  2. H2
    Not run

    Removing proteomics drops the matched factor's Visium explained variance by >=30 pp (permutation p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted in PLAN (PLAN stage 3 did not complete; no completion flag); never reached EXECUTE. Hypotheses from the PLAN-stage hypothesis list (unfinalised plan).

  3. H3
    Not run

    Top-100 H1-factor genes enriched for LAMDA and/or Hemedan Boolean-PD regulators (hypergeometric q<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted in PLAN (PLAN stage 3 did not complete; no completion flag); never reached EXECUTE. Hypotheses from the PLAN-stage hypothesis list (unfinalised plan).

  4. H4
    Not run

    No single modality contributes >60% of H1-factor explained variance.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted in PLAN (PLAN stage 3 did not complete; no completion flag); never reached EXECUTE. Hypotheses from the PLAN-stage hypothesis list (unfinalised plan).

  5. H5
    Not run

    No pairwise MOFA+ model recovers a factor with loading |r|>=0.7 to the H1 factor.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    contract: missing: completion flag

    Adjudication note

    Run halted in PLAN (PLAN stage 3 did not complete; no completion flag); never reached EXECUTE. Hypotheses from the PLAN-stage hypothesis list (unfinalised plan).

parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 492 KB
  1. H1
    Not testable

    3-modal MOFA+ (snRNA+spatial+proteomics) yields >=1 factor with R2>5% in all three modalities AND PD-associated (Wilcoxon p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Strictly, H1 should be labelled NOT EVALUABLE rather than NOT SUPPORTED

    Adjudication note

    Run labels H1 'NOT SUPPORTED'; spatial (dbGaP-protected GeoMx) and proteomics (no processed table) unavailable; only a 1-modal snRNA surrogate was run (Factor 1 Wilcoxon p=0.948).

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Proteomics ablation drops spatial R2 of matched factor by >=30 pp.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Requires spatial modality per-donor count matrices (Δ R²_spatial between 3-modal and 2-modal MOFA+). No per-donor GeoMx spatial data could be obtained

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Top-100 H1-factor genes enriched for LAMDA ∪ Hemedan (hypergeometric q<0.05); not evaluable if H1 null not rejected.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    If H1₀ is not rejected, H3 is "not evaluable."

    Adjudication note

    Discrepancy: run/report report H3 SUPPORTED (q_BH=5.07e-9) but on a 1-modal surrogate Factor 1 that captures DA cell-type composition, not the pre-registered H1 factor; per pre-reg H3 is not evaluable. Also k/OR differ between analysis summary (k=12, OR=10.6) and report (k=13, OR=11.7). Alternative reading: SUPPORTED (proxy).

  4. H4
    Not testable

    No single modality contributes >60% of H1-factor explained variance.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Requires all three modalities to compute per-modality variance fractions. With only snRNA-seq, the fraction is trivially 100% snRNA-seq.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  5. H5
    Not testable

    No pairwise MOFA+ model recovers factor with |r|>=0.70 to the H1 factor.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-multimodal-spatial-proteomics-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Requires pairwise MOFA+ models with spatial and proteomics modalities.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report
  1. H1
    Not testable

    Re-processing PXD046355 with DIA-NN + locked 8-protein LR yields 5-fold CV AUC >=0.85 for iRBD converter vs non-converter.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **H1 (primary) BLOCKED**: DIA-NN 1.9.2 is Linux-only and unavailable on [the analysis platform]; PRIDE PXD046355 API returns empty file listing

    Adjudication note

    Blocked by raw-spectra inaccessibility and missing converter labels (also a tool/platform limitation).

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Per-protein univariate Cox HR signs match Hällqvist 2024 published HR directions (binomial).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Hällqvist 2024 did not report Cox regression — the analysis used SVM and OPLS-DA, so there are no published Cox HRs to compare against.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Adding the 8-protein panel to clinical baseline improves 5-yr time-dependent AUC by >0.05 (CI excludes 0).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Both H2 and H3 are blocked pending raw data access.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    HR directions of 6 overlapping panel proteins match between Hällqvist (LC-MS) and Gan 2025 UKB Olink (>=4/6).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    - **H4 is NOT SUPPORTED** (pre-registered threshold: ≥4/6 with p < 0.05)

    Adjudication note

    3/6 concordant, p=0.656. Hällqvist side used PD-vs-HC signed p-values (Figure_03) as a proxy for conversion HRs, which were not published; alternative reading NOT_TESTED_DATA.

  5. H5
    Not testable

    Functional sub-panels (inflammation, proteostasis, lipid) tested in 5-fold CV; any sub-panel AUC>0.75 = dominant.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H5 requires per-sample protein intensities for the 72 iRBD samples to compute sub-panel AUCs, blocked by the same DIA-NN/PRIDE dependency as H1.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 368 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    Locked 8-protein LR on PXD046355 (DIA-NN or MOESM4 fallback) achieves 5-fold CV AUC >=0.85 for iRBD converter vs non-converter.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Result: NOT SUPPORTED under the pre-registered label protocol. However, a post-hoc clean-negative sensitivity analysis recovers AUC = 0.925

    Adjudication note

    Primary AUC=0.554 [0.437,0.678] fails the rule (run: NOT SUPPORTED), but labels were inferred from MonthsSinceBaseline and contaminated (40 future converters in non-converter class); confirmed labels unavailable. Alternative reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Univariate Cox HR signs of 8 panel proteins match Hällqvist Supp Table 3 conversion HR signs (>=6/8 with binomial p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Result: 6/8 concordant (75%) — SURROGATE ANALYSIS, not primary H2.**

    Adjudication note

    Reference Cox HRs not published; SVM coefficients used as surrogate (6/8, p=0.145, which would fail even loose acceptance). Pre-reg declared H2 'blocked' in this case. Alternative reading: NOT_SUPPORTED.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Panel adds ΔAUC>0.05 over clinical-only (age, sex, MoCA, UPSIT) Cox model, CI lower >0.

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The SDRF clinical covariates (age, sex, MoCA, UPSIT) are not available in the MOESM4 supplementary data.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  4. H4
    Not supported

    HR directions of 6 UKB-Olink-overlapping proteins concordant between Hällqvist iRBD conversion and Gan 2025 UKB incident PD (>=4/6, p<0.05).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Result: NOT SUPPORTED (1/6 concordant, 17%).**

    Adjudication note

    Hällqvist-side HRs are the run's own Cox HRs from label-contaminated MOESM4 data (published conversion HRs unavailable).

  5. H5
    Not supported

    At least one functional sub-panel achieves 5-fold CV AUC >0.75 (failure if all <=0.60).

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-plasma-prodromal-panel-r4 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    **Result: NOT SUPPORTED (no sub-panel exceeds AUC = 0.75).**

    Adjudication note

    Sub-panel AUCs 0.596/0.590/0.457; same label-contamination caveat as H1 applies.

parkinson-prs-portability-r1

PD5 hypotheses, none evaluatedNo final report

This run reached planning but never completed a test.

  1. H1
    Not run

    EUR 1000G LDpred-funct PRS liability-R2 within ±0.05 of Saffie-Awad 2025 EUR benchmark (AUC 0.621), bootstrap equivalence test

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "reasons": "contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag"

    Adjudication note

    Run halted at EXECUTE stage 3 (required stage outputs missing; no results record in successive EXECUTE stages); hypothesis never tested.

  2. H2
    Not run

    EAS/EUR ancestry-decay ratio within ±0.10 of Saffie-Awad ratio 0.931

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "reasons": "contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag"

    Adjudication note

    Run halted at EXECUTE stage 3 (required stage outputs missing; no results record in successive EXECUTE stages); hypothesis never tested.

  3. H3
    Not run

    Storm 2025 protein-MR overlay adds ΔR2 >= 0.01 in EUR

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "reasons": "contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag"

    Adjudication note

    Run halted at EXECUTE stage 3 (required stage outputs missing; no results record in successive EXECUTE stages); hypothesis never tested.

  4. H4
    Not run

    Kim 2024 multi-ancestry PRS not worse than Nalls 2019 EUR-only PRS in EUR (DeLong p>0.10, Kim>=Nalls)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "reasons": "contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag"

    Adjudication note

    Run halted at EXECUTE stage 3 (required stage outputs missing; no results record in successive EXECUTE stages); hypothesis never tested.

  5. H5
    Not run

    Bootstrap AUC-equivalent CI width >0.15 for at least one sub-population with n<200

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "reasons": "contract: missing: results record, analysis summary, figure legends, analysis code, summary, completion flag"

    Adjudication note

    Run halted at EXECUTE stage 3 (required stage outputs missing; no results record in successive EXECUTE stages); hypothesis never tested.

parkinson-prs-portability-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 308 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    EUR 1000G analytical PRS liability-R2 (Kim 2024, LDpred) within ±0.05 of Saffie-Awad 2025 EUR benchmark (AUC 0.621)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    [EUR] R²_obs=0.062550 | R²_L=0.026740 | AUC=0.5467 | 95% CI=[0.5440, 0.5501]

    Adjudication note

    Latest stage EXECUTE stage 9 (liftover + all-chrom AFs fixed) gives AUC 0.547 vs benchmark 0.621 (deviation_auc -0.074349); EXECUTE stage 4 and reviewed report also REJECTED (AUC 0.548, -0.073). Stage 9 lacks analysis summary/completion flag (stage incomplete) but results record is complete.

  2. H2
    Supported

    EAS/EUR analytical AUC ratio within ±0.10 of Saffie-Awad ratio 0.931

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    "ratio_eas_over_eur": 0.992253,

    Adjudication note

    Rule met formally (deviation +0.061 within ±0.10), but ratio CI [0.984, 1.000] excludes 0.931 and EAS<EUR ordering is not resolved; in stage 4 (basis of the reviewed report) support was explicitly 'artefactual' (build mismatch). stage 9 fixed liftover but was never analysed/reviewed. Low-confidence support of a weak tolerance test.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Storm 2025 pQTL protein-MR overlay increases EUR liability-R2 by >= 0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The Storm 2025 (Brain 148:2412) supplementary pQTL-instrumented gene list is not available in `storm_2025_pd_targets.json` (empty array). H3 cannot be evaluated.

    Adjudication note

    DEFERRED in stages 4 and 9 (recorded H3 verdict: DEFERRED).

  4. H4
    Not supported

    Multi-ancestry Kim 2024 PRS not significantly outperformed by EUR-only Nalls 2019 PRS in EUR stratum

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    [EUR] R²_obs=0.092491 | R²_L=0.039539 | AUC=0.5570 | 95% CI=[0.5539, 0.5608]

    Adjudication note

    DISCREPANCY: stage 9 code labels H4 SUPPORTED, but with corrected Nalls N_eff (145177) Nalls AUC 0.557 > Kim 0.547; results record delta_kim2024_vs_nalls2019 = -0.01032, CI [-0.014894, -0.005571] (Nalls significantly better) -> pre-registered REJECTED condition; reported delong_p=1.0 is the Kim>Nalls direction. Reviewed report (stage 4 data) said REVERSED, driven by an N_eff artefact. Analytical (label-free) AUCs; interpret cautiously.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Bootstrap AUC CI width >0.15 for at least one ancestry with n<200 (CI honesty)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-prs-portability-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    H5 is rejected — not because uncertainty is genuinely small, but because the chi-squared parametric bootstrap models uncertainty in a chi-squared sampling model

    Adjudication note

    Formal rule outcome REJECTED in stages 4 and 9 (AAC CI width ~0.011-0.014), but the run itself states the bootstrap measures analytical sensitivity, not sampling uncertainty (no individual-level labelled genotypes), so the test cannot answer the question. Could also be classed NOT_SUPPORTED by the letter of the rule.

parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 287 KB
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    Top-20 Fullard SNpc-DA PD regulons replicate same-sign in all 3 held-out atlases (>=3 regulons) with binomial p<0.01

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    3/20 TFs (15%) show sign agreement in both — no better than a null of 50% sign-agreement per pair (binomial p = 0.785)

    Adjudication note

    Pre-registered design not executable: Fullard SNpc discovery atlas unavailable (Adams n=4 PD used), CollecTRI/ULM instead of pySCENIC/AUCell, 2 of 3 replication atlases. Chance-level result (p vs shuffled 0.919); run calls it 'inconclusive rather than falsified' / underpowered. stage 4 (basis of the report) gave 9/20 in 1 atlas, p=0.748. Arguably NOT_TESTED_DATA (proxy test).

  2. H2
    Not testable

    Consensus PD-up regulon TFs enriched (BH q<0.05) for Kim 2024 fine-mapped PD-risk genes

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    This is a proxy test, not the pre-registered test. Conclusion about H2 is inconclusive pending the actual Kim 2024 supplementary table.

    Adjudication note

    Kim 2024 fine-mapping table not retrieved; OpenTargets proxy gave 0 overlaps, q=1.0 (run labelled NOT_SUPPORTED).

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Per-donor consensus PD-up regulon activity correlates (rho>0.3) with AGTR1+ DA depletion

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    INAPPLICABLE. Prior workspace `parkinson-da-vulnerability` AUCell scores not available in this execution environment.

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  4. H4
    Inconclusive

    Leave-one-atlas-out RF on regulon scores classifies PD donors with mean AUC>=0.70 and CI excluding 0.5

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Mean AUC = 0.808 meets the ≥ 0.70 threshold, but the pre-registration criterion required CI lower bound > 0.5. With only 2 LOO folds, bootstrap CI lower bound = 0.25 (< 0.5).

    Adjudication note

    Run labels NOT_SUPPORTED; 2 folds/16 donors instead of 4-fold LOO, CI [0.25,1.0] uninformative (run attributes to data limitation). Could be NOT_SUPPORTED by the letter of the rule.

  5. H5
    Supported

    H1 replication count varies by <=1 across Leiden gamma 0.4/0.8/1.2

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-scenic-regulons-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    SUPPORTED. Swing = 1 ≤ pre-registered threshold of 1.

    Adjudication note

    Robustness of a chance-level count (2-3/20); report (stage 4 data) reported swing=0.

parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedNo final report
  1. H1
    Inconclusive

    Ma 2025 clonal CD8+ T-cell module PD-up (FDR<0.1) in >=3/4 independent snRNA-seq atlases, beating shuffled-label null

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The primary hypothesis is not evaluable with the data currently in the shared cache.

    Adjudication note

    Run labelled NOT SUPPORTED (0/1 atlases), but only Fullard tested and its leukocytes were DMNX-dominated with zero SNpc cells; Kamath/Wang/Adams not downloaded (file size/run budget). Arguably NOT_TESTED_DATA.

  2. H2
    Inconclusive

    T-cell module region ranking SNpc > M1 > V1 ≈ DMNX in Fullard (Spearman rho>=0.5, perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    ρ = 0.500, permutation p = 0.505.

    Adjudication note

    Run labelled NOT SUPPORTED; SNpc absent (0 leukocytes), only 3 regions so p<0.05 is unreachable.

  3. H3
    Not testable

    Per-donor T-cell module score correlates with AGTR1+ DA loss (rho>0.3, p<0.05) in >=2/4 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The Census query fetched only leukocyte-annotated cells; dopaminergic neurons (AGTR1+ DA cluster) were not downloaded.

    Adjudication note

    DEFERRED; data not fetched (could be classed NOT_TESTED_OTHER).

  4. H4
    Not testable

    Visium spots high in T-cell module co-enriched for reactive-astrocyte markers (rho>=0.3)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    GSE243639 (Martirosyan 2024 Visium data) RAW.tar (1.2 GB) was not downloaded.

    Adjudication note

    DEFERRED; the sibling run later found GSE243639 is snRNA-seq, not Visium.

  5. H5
    Inconclusive

    Negative control: exhaustion module NOT PD-enriched (FDR>0.1) in >=3/4 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r2 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    the exhaustion module (PDCD1, HAVCR2, LAG3, TOX, TIGIT) shows mean PD − ctrl difference of +0.012, Wilcoxon padj = 1.000.

    Adjudication note

    Run claims SUPPORTED, but the rule needs >=3/4 atlases and only 1 (wrong-tissue) atlas was tested.

parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report PDF, 336 KB
  1. H1
    Not supported

    Ma 2025 clonal CD8+ T-cell module PD-up (FDR<0.1, log2FC>0) in >=3/4 independent atlases, Δ vs shuffled-label null CI excluding 0

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    Zero of two testable atlases (Wang 2024 and Fullard 2024) show both log2FC > 0 and FDR < 0.1

    Adjudication note

    Also 0/3 with Martirosyan extension; Fullard (62 PD/17 ctrl) null, Cohen d -0.30. Kamath not tested (matrix not in cache), Adams excluded (1 PD donor).

  2. H2
    Not supported

    T-cell module follows revised region rank GPi>=M1>PFC>DMNX≈V1 in Fullard (rho>0.5, perm p<0.05)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The pre-registered rank order (GPi > M1 > PFC > DMNX > V1) does not match the observed median scores (ρ = −0.10, p = 0.60).

    Adjudication note

    No adjudication note was recorded.

  3. H3
    Not supported

    Per-donor T-cell module score correlates with AGTR1+ DA-loss (rho>0.3, perm p<0.05) in >=2/4 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No atlas meets the pre-registered criterion of ρ > 0.3 and permutation p < 0.05.

    Adjudication note

    Very small donor n (5, 5, 15); Fullard rho -0.40 (opposite direction). Somewhat underpowered.

  4. H4
    Not testable

    Spatial T-cell module x reactive-astrocyte co-localisation (pre-registered as DEFERRED)

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The Martirosyan 2024 dataset (GSE243639) is snRNA-seq, not Visium spatial transcriptomics.

    Adjudication note

    Ma 2025 Visium likely dbGaP-restricted; deferred at PLAN.

  5. H5
    Supported

    Negative control: exhaustion module fails to replicate (log2FC<=0 or FDR>=0.1) in >=3 atlases

    Evidence and adjudication for parkinson-tcell-foothold-r3 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    The failure of H5 to show a false-positive enrichment is expected (and reassuring), but the failure of H1 means the negative control comparison is moot — both modules are null.

    Adjudication note

    Rule met on 3 atlases (Wang, Fullard, Martirosyan; results record H5 exhaustion replication rate 0.0) but uninformative because H1 is null.

pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1

PD5 hypotheses, 5 evaluatedFinal report
  1. H1
    Supported

    V-ATPase CLEAR module UP (mean log2FC>0, >=6 subunits up, perm p at floor) in LRRK2 G2019S isogenic iPSC-DA, GSE167335

    Evidence and adjudication for pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1 H1

    Evidence quoted from the run

    (direction): Mean log2FC = +0.4846 (95% CI +0.182 to +0.787), 8/9 subunits individually up, permutation p = 0.167 at its achievable floor.

    Adjudication note

    Pre-registered direction rule met at n=2+2 (no formal significance possible). Knowledge-graph nodes = supported. CAVEAT: Δ vs prior = -0.0004; report itself questions whether GSE167335 is independent of the original cohort (possible re-analysis of the same data).

  2. H2
    Not testable

    V-ATPase module higher in GBA-N370S vs control iPSC-DA in E-MTAB-7303

    Evidence and adjudication for pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1 H2

    Evidence quoted from the run

    E-MTAB-7303 (pre-registered H2 cohort) remains BLOCKED — raw FASTQ only, no alignment tools installed.

    Adjudication note

    Only proxy-tested post hoc in GSE62642 (n=4 vs 2): module d = -0.042, 95% CI [-2.531, 1.563], NULL/underpowered. Knowledge-graph nodes = inconclusive. If the proxy is accepted, verdict would be INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered null).

  3. H3
    Inconclusive

    iPSC-locked V-ATPase module higher in PD than control postmortem SN DA neurons (GSE157783); AUC and effect CIs exclude null

    Evidence and adjudication for pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1 H3

    Evidence quoted from the run

    AUC = 1.000 with CI = [1.0, 1.0] is uninformative due to complete separation at this sample size.

    Adjudication note

    Letter of the rule met (d=+5.14, CI [5.142, 15.558]; AUC CI [1,1]) and graph status 'supported', but CIs are degenerate at n=2+2, perm p=0.167; run states formal inference is impossible.

  4. H4
    Inconclusive

    V-ATPase shift is DA-neuron selective (DA-vs-other contrast CI excludes 0)

    Evidence and adjudication for pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1 H4

    Evidence quoted from the run

    DA vs non-DA contrast: Δd = +4.065, 95% CI [−174.663, +15.394], p = 0.741

    Adjudication note

    Run verdict GLOBAL/inconclusive; pre-registered rule would call this NULL; n=2+2 per cell type.

  5. H5
    Partial

    Sensitivity/power decomposition: replication verdict robust to gene-set and normalisation choices; cohort power adequacy

    Evidence and adjudication for pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1 H5

    Evidence quoted from the run

    No cohort in this study can achieve formal statistical significance at α = 0.05 in the available data.

    Adjudication note

    Descriptive sub-analyses with no formal decision rule. H1 direction robust to normalisation (+0.485 vs +0.490); gene-set split not robust (V0-only down -1.35 in GSE157783 while 9-gene up); no cohort adequately powered.

Download the data

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