Campaign run · Alzheimer's disease

alzheimer-ligrec-braak-breakdown-r1

ADCompleted the pipelineSingle attempt at this topic

Which ligand-receptor (L-R) communication axes between microglia, astrocytes, and excitatory/inhibitory neurons are most disrupted with advancing Braak stage in human AD snRNA-seq atlases; do the disrupted signals cluster in pathways encoded by AD GWAS risk genes; and can the identity of disrupted signals predict the next region of tau spread (EC→hippocampus→PFC sequence)?

  • Not supported 1
  • Not testable (data) 5
  • Not tested (run did not execute) 3

Status

How far it got
Completed the pipeline

Tested at least one hypothesis and reached the multi-agent review stage. This shows the run went through the whole pipeline, not that its work passed a quality bar.

Hypotheses

9 nominated; 6 evaluated; 3 not tested because the run did not execute them.

Recorded status

Done. The run recorded a final status of done.

Census class

Success. Census class is a label from an earlier, process-level census of the campaign. It does not map one-to-one onto the stages above. How the classes compare.

Research question

The sentence under the run id is quoted from this brief.

Full research brief given to the run

Direction d5 from the Alzheimer's-mechanism IDEATE run.

Which ligand-receptor (L-R) communication axes between microglia, astrocytes, and excitatory/inhibitory neurons are most disrupted with advancing Braak stage in human AD snRNA-seq atlases; do the disrupted signals cluster in pathways encoded by AD GWAS risk genes; and can the identity of disrupted signals predict the next region of tau spread (EC→hippocampus→PFC sequence)?

De Strooper's "network disease" framing motivates this: AD emerges from the breakdown of coordinated glial-neuronal responses, not from any single cell-autonomous lesion. Prior work identified dysregulated L-R interactions in AD PFC and integrated GWAS risk into that framework, but did not address the TEMPORAL dynamics across Braak stage. This OmiCairn run quantifies cell-cell communication across Braak stage in open human AD snRNA-seq using open L-R inference frameworks (e.g. CellChat / NicheNet), tests GWAS enrichment of the disrupted axes, and explores whether disrupted signals presage tau spread.

Hypotheses (pre-registered, lifted from d5):

H1 (primary — three most-disrupted axes, monotone with Braak): Complement-related signaling (C1Q-C3-CR3 axis: microglia→neuron), SPP1 (microglia→astrocyte/oligodendrocyte), and CXCL10-CXCR3 (glia→T-cell recruitment) are the three most disrupted communication axes in AD, with disruption magnitude increasing monotonically with Braak stage. Decision rule: per-donor pseudobulk L-R interaction scores (CellChat communication probability or equivalent) regressed on Braak stage (ordinal); report slope + p-value + 95% CI per axis. H1 passes if the three named axes rank among the top disrupted interactions AND each shows a positive monotone slope with Braak (p<0.05, 95% CI excluding 0). Report the full ranked disruption table regardless — if a different axis dominates, that is the finding.

H2 (secondary — GWAS enrichment of disrupted axes): Disrupted L-R interactions at Braak stage III-IV are significantly enriched in pathways encoded by genes in the top 20 AD GWAS loci (specifically BIN1, CLU, CR1, MS4A, PICALM, TREM2), indicating that GWAS-identified risk converges on inter-cellular communication failure rather than purely cell-autonomous dysfunction. Decision rule: hypergeometric / permutation enrichment test of the Braak III-IV disrupted-interaction gene set against the top-20 AD GWAS locus gene set; report odds ratio / enrichment statistic + p-value + 95% CI. H2 passes if enrichment is significant (p<0.05) with a 95% CI excluding the null.

A negative or partial result is fully informative. If complement / SPP1 / CXCL10 are NOT the top disrupted axes, report the actual ranking as the headline. If GWAS enrichment is absent, report that the disrupted communication network does not preferentially involve GWAS loci. Do not re-tune the L-R inference until H1/H2 pass.

The tau-spread prediction (EC→hippocampus→PFC) is exploratory and multi-region: with a single-region primary atlas it can only be framed as a hypothesis-generating direction, not tested. Report it as such unless a multi-region open atlas (SEA-AD) is successfully fetched and harmonised.

The research question comes from the topic's current research brief. All attempts at a topic share it; earlier attempts may have started from an earlier wording.

Hypotheses and verdicts

Each hypothesis was written with its decision rule before any analysis (or, for on-the-fly hypotheses, recorded during execution). AI adjudication agents applied that rule to the run's latest outputs and quoted the evidence verbatim. Where the data did not meet the rule, the verdict follows the data, even if the run's own label or report claimed support.

Each hypothesis as pre-registered (a condensed statement with its decision rule), the adjudicated verdict, the verbatim evidence and the adjudicator's note.
IDHypothesis and decision ruleVerdict
H1Pre-registeredC1Q-C3-CR3, SPP1 and CXCL10-CXCR3 are among the top-10 disrupted L-R axes in AD PFC, each with positive monotone Braak slope (p<0.05, CI excl. 0).Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

H1 therefore fails on all three pre-registered sub-criteria.

Adjudication note

Final EXECUTE stage 9: C3-ITGAM rank 257 (p=0.565), SPP1-ITGA9 rank 45 and DOWN, CXCL10-CXCR3 absent from CellChatDB. Braak-monotone component untestable (no Braak in GSE157827; binary AD-vs-NC only). Global donor-label permutation p=0.494; report calls it 'an underpowered null result, not a powered negative' -> some may prefer INCONCLUSIVE. Graph H1 nodes last status inconclusive; stage 9 graph update = refutes.

H2Pre-registeredGenes of disrupted L-R pairs (Braak III-IV or AD-vs-control) are enriched in top-20 AD GWAS locus genes (hypergeometric p<0.05, OR CI excl. 1).Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

H2 as pre-registered (direct overlap) is therefore untestable with this resource

Adjudication note

OmiCairn/report label it NOT SUPPORTED (OR=0.0, CI [0, 3.59], p=1.0) but only 2 GWAS genes are in the 305-gene CellChatDB background, i.e. a structurally degenerate test; Braak III-IV stratum also unavailable. Alternative: INCONCLUSIVE. Graph = refuted.

H3Pre-registeredExploratory: disrupted-axis intensity across EC, hippocampus, PFC tracks tau-spread order (Spearman rho>=0, p<0.05; needs SEA-AD multi-region).Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

could not be tested in this study because GSE157827 covers only PFC and the SEA-AD multi-region atlas (Synapse syn64410371; [19]) was not fetched for this analysis

Adjudication note

Single-region atlas; multi-region data never fetched.

OTF1Proposed on the flyLAMA2->integrin (microglia->astrocyte) disruption reflects pericellular-matrix change and tracks Braak stage as microglia shift to DAM.Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

this should be tested in SEA-AD where continuous neuropathology scores are available

Adjudication note

Needs Braak-resolved data; SEA-AD never fetched.

OTF2Proposed on the flyJAM2->ITGB1 (endothelial->excitatory neuron) elevation reflects Braak-dependent BBB breakdown.Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

in a multi-donor dataset with both BBB markers and Braak staging

Adjudication note

No Braak-staged dataset used; JAM2->ITGB1 only nominal p=0.021 uncorrected in GSE157827.

OTF3Proposed on the flyReformulated H2: NicheNet downstream targets of top disrupted L-R pairs are enriched in GWAS-locus regulatory modules.Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

This reformulation of H2 is the principal actionable next step.

Adjudication note

Never run (different framework needed); data available.

OTF4Proposed on the flyRelative ranking of ECM vs complement/SPP1 axes is real (Delta=0.662, p=0.001) but absolute disruption needs larger n (SEA-AD).Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

SEA-AD with n > 400 donors would test this definitively.

Adjudication note

Present only in an EXECUTE-stage graph update (not merged into the knowledge graph); larger cohort never fetched.

OTF5Proposed on the flyMDK->ALK (endothelial->endothelial, log2FC -1.90) is a novel AD-associated loss of vascular neuroprotective signalling.Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

MDK is a heparin-binding growth factor with neuroprotective roles

Adjudication note

Only in stage 9 graph-update record (not in knowledge graph); flagged cheap to test, never followed up.

OTF6Proposed on the flySEMA5A->PLXNA3/PLXNA1 (microglia->astrocyte/neuron) reduction reflects axon-guidance disruption contributing to synaptic pruning deficits.Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Semaphorin 5A is implicated in neural circuit refinement

Adjudication note

Only in stage 9 graph-update record (not in knowledge graph); never followed up.