Campaign run · Alzheimer's disease

alzheimer-apoe4-microglia-ldam-r1

ADCompleted the pipelineSingle attempt at this topic

Do APOE4 homozygous and heterozygous carriers in existing human snRNA-seq atlases show a statistically significant shift away from disease-associated microglia (DAM) and toward lipid-droplet-accumulating microglia (LDAM), and does this LDAM/DAM ratio correlate with excess tau pathology burden beyond what is explained by Aβ accumulation alone?

  • Not supported 2
  • Not testable (data) 2
  • Not tested (run did not execute) 2

Status

How far it got
Completed the pipeline

Tested at least one hypothesis and reached the multi-agent review stage. This shows the run went through the whole pipeline, not that its work passed a quality bar.

Hypotheses

6 nominated; 4 evaluated; 2 not tested because the run did not execute them.

Recorded status

Done. The run recorded a final status of done.

Census class

Success. Census class is a label from an earlier, process-level census of the campaign. It does not map one-to-one onto the stages above. How the classes compare.

Research question

The sentence under the run id is quoted from this brief.

Full research brief given to the run

Direction d2 from the Alzheimer's-mechanism IDEATE run.

Do APOE4 homozygous and heterozygous carriers in existing human snRNA-seq atlases show a statistically significant shift away from disease-associated microglia (DAM) and toward lipid-droplet-accumulating microglia (LDAM), and does this LDAM/DAM ratio correlate with excess tau pathology burden beyond what is explained by Aβ accumulation alone?

APOE4 is the strongest genetic risk factor for AD; recent work converges on lipid metabolism and microglial dysfunction as its mechanistic core. TREM2-dependent DAM is the protective microglial state for plaque clearance; LDAM is a dysfunctional, proinflammatory state that fails at phagocytosis. This OmiCairn run re-analyses open human snRNA-seq by APOE genotype, computes DAM vs LDAM microglial composition, and tests whether the LDAM/DAM balance tracks tau burden (Braak / tangle count) independently of amyloid load.

Hypotheses (pre-registered, lifted from d2):

H1 (primary — genotype-driven LDAM/DAM marker shift): APOE4/4 carriers show significantly higher LDAM marker expression (LGALS3, CD9, GPNMB, NPC2) and lower DAM2 marker expression (TREM2, LPL, CST7) in microglia compared to APOE3/3 carriers at matched Braak stage, consistent with a lipid-driven microglial dysfunction. Decision rule: per-donor pseudobulk DE within the microglia compartment, APOE4/4 vs APOE3/3 stratified to matched Braak; report log2FC + Benjamini–Hochberg FDR + 95% bootstrap CI per gene. H1 passes if ≥2 of the 4 LDAM markers are up (FDR<0.05) AND ≥2 of the 3 DAM2 markers are down (FDR<0.05).

H2 (secondary — LDAM/DAM ratio vs tau beyond amyloid): The ratio of LDAM to DAM microglial cells correlates positively with neurofibrillary-tangle burden (not just Aβ plaque count), suggesting APOE4-driven microglial dysfunction accelerates tau pathology independently of amyloid load. Decision rule: per-donor LDAM/DAM ratio regressed on a tau index (Braak stage and/or tangle count) with Aβ load as a covariate; report the partial regression coefficient for tau + p-value + 95% CI. H2 passes if the tau coefficient is positive and significant (p<0.05, 95% CI excluding 0) after adjusting for Aβ.

IMPORTANT — covariate dependency: H1 requires APOE genotype metadata; H2 requires tau/Braak (and ideally Aβ) metadata in the same donors. EXECUTE MUST first verify these covariates are present in the fetched object. If APOE genotype is missing, H1 cannot be tested — report that honestly and fall back to a Braak-stratified DAM-vs-LDAM description without the genotype contrast. If tau/Aβ neuropathology is missing, H2 cannot be tested — say so and report the LDAM/DAM composition descriptively. Do NOT impute or fabricate genotype or neuropathology.

A negative or partial result is fully informative. If APOE4 does not shift the LDAM/DAM balance, or the shift does not track tau, that must be the headline rather than re-tuning cluster definitions until H1/H2 pass.

The research question comes from the topic's current research brief. All attempts at a topic share it; earlier attempts may have started from an earlier wording.

Hypotheses and verdicts

Each hypothesis was written with its decision rule before any analysis (or, for on-the-fly hypotheses, recorded during execution). AI adjudication agents applied that rule to the run's latest outputs and quoted the evidence verbatim. Where the data did not meet the rule, the verdict follows the data, even if the run's own label or report claimed support.

Each hypothesis as pre-registered (a condensed statement with its decision rule), the adjudicated verdict, the verbatim evidence and the adjudicator's note.
IDHypothesis and decision ruleVerdict
H1Pre-registeredAPOE4/4 vs APOE3/3 microglial pseudobulk: >=2/4 LDAM markers up AND >=2/3 DAM2 markers down (FDR<0.05) at matched Braak (SEA-AD primary, Morabito replication).Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

The H1 decision rule required ≥2 LDAM markers upregulated and ≥2 DAM2 markers downregulated at FDR<0.05; neither criterion was met. H1 is therefore not supported.

Adjudication note

0/7 markers FDR<0.05; DAM2 trended UP. Tested only as binary APOE4 carrier (n=25) vs non-carrier (n=59) because CellxGene SEA-AD lacks e4/4 vs e3/3 genotype; bootstrap log2FC instead of DESeq2; Morabito replication impossible (no APOE column). Strict reading could call this NOT_TESTED_DATA (diluted proxy contrast). Knowledge-graph status = refuted.

H2Pre-registeredPer-donor LDAM/DAM ratio positively associated with tau (Braak) after adjusting for amyloid; beta_tau>0, p<0.05, 95% CI excludes 0.Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

The partial regression coefficient for Braak stage was β_tau=+0.031 (95% bootstrap CI: −0.007 to +0.069; p=0.143; Fig. 4c)

Adjudication note

Report: 'H2 is therefore not supported.' Direction positive; plan rated H2 adequately powered (MDE r~0.29) but report says post hoc n~290 needed for observed r=0.162; age covariate dropped (categorical bins). Knowledge-graph last status = inconclusive.

H3Pre-registeredMonotonic APOE dose-response: LDAM score e3/3 < e3/4 < e4/4 and DAM2 e3/3 > e3/4 > e4/4 (Jonckheere-Terpstra, Braak-controlled).Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Because the CellxGene object provides only binary carrier status, the test reduces to a two-group comparison equivalent to Mann-Whitney U.

Adjudication note

Three-genotype dose-response untestable (binary APOE4 only). Proxy 2-group, Braak-UNadjusted test: LDAM p=0.006 (Bonf. 0.012), DAM2 p=0.887. Report relabels this as 'exploratory, not pre-registered' although H3 is in the PLAN-stage hypothesis list. Knowledge-graph status = supported (discrepancy). If proxy counted as a test: at most PARTIALLY_SUPPORTED.

OTF1Proposed on the flyAPOE expression itself is elevated in LDAM-state microglia in SEA-AD (APOE4 autocrine feedback loop).Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

upregulates APOE transcription.

Adjudication note

Raised in EXECUTE stage 2 (marked cheap to test); no later execute stage; data available but never run.

OTF2Proposed on the flyIn e4/e4 homozygous donors (Synapse syn64410371 metadata) the LDAM/DAM2 shift is larger than in heterozygotes and the H1 rule would pass.Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Accessing fine-grained ε4/4 vs ε3/3 homozygous genotype from the SEA-AD Synapse release (syn64410371) and re-running the H1 pseudobulk DE contrast

Adjudication note

Listed only as a next step; fine-grained genotype absent from the fetched CellxGene object and the Synapse metadata was never fetched.

OTF3Proposed on the flyA linear mixed model with categorical age bins as random effects would recover a significant beta_tau for H2 in the same 84 donors.Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

with the same 84 donors.

Adjudication note

Never run; data available.