Campaign run · Parkinson's disease

parkinson-da-vulnerability-r5

PDTested, stopped before reviewAttempt 5 of 5 at this topic

This OmiCairn run formally tests whether the AGTR1+ vulnerable DA subtype is recoverable, and whether it shows the same PD-specific depletion + TP53/NR2F2 upregulation …

  • Not supported 2
  • Inconclusive 2
  • Not testable (data) 1

Status

How far it got
Tested, stopped before review

Tested at least one hypothesis, then stopped before the multi-agent review stage.

Hypotheses

5 nominated; 5 evaluated.

Recorded status

Halted. The run recorded a final status of halted: it was closed without being marked done. A halted run can still have tested hypotheses and written a final report.

Census class

Success. Census class is a label from an earlier, process-level census of the campaign. It does not map one-to-one onto the stages above. How the classes compare.

Research question

The sentence under the run id is quoted from this brief.

Full research brief given to the run

Kamath, Macosko et al. (Nat Neurosci 25:588, 2022; DOI 10.1038/s41593-022-01061-1) reported that a single AGTR1+ ventral-tier substantia-nigra pars compacta (SNpc) dopaminergic (DA) neuronal subtype is selectively lost in Parkinson's disease (PD), and that residual AGTR1+ DA cells upregulate TP53 and NR2F2 target programs. The finding was derived from 10 PD/LBD + 8 control donors (387,483 nuclei; 22,048 DA-restricted nuclei) and spatially anchored by Slide-seqV2 to the ventral tier of SNpc. It is the most-cited cellular finding in PD single-cell biology, but has never been formally replicated against three subsequent independent SNpc snRNA-seq atlases under a single re-analysis pipeline.

This OmiCairn run formally tests whether the AGTR1+ vulnerable DA subtype is recoverable, and whether it shows the same PD-specific depletion + TP53/NR2F2 upregulation, in:

  • Wang et al. (Sci Adv 10:eadi8287, 2024; GEO GSE184950) — 23 idiopathic PD + 9 control / 315,867 SNpc nuclei.
  • Adams L., Song M.K. et al. (Nat Aging 4:364, 2024; GEO GSE193688 + dbGaP phs002819.v1.p1) — 9 young + 8 aged + 14 PD / 69,289 SN nuclei, 10x Multiome.
  • Fullard / N M et al. (Sci Data 11:1274, 2024; CELLxGENE collection d5d0df8f-4eee-49d8-a221-a288f50a1590) — 100 donors (75 PD + 25 ctrl), 2,096,155 nuclei across 5 regions; this proposal uses the SNpc slab only.
  • Martirosyan et al. (Mol Neurodegen 19:7, 2024; GEO GSE243639) — 15 PD + 14 ctrl / ~84,000 SNpc nuclei; held out for blind external validation in H3.

Hypotheses (pre-registered):

H1 (primary — vulnerable-subtype depletion replicates): The Kamath AGTR1+ DA subtype (defined by the published Kamath top-30 marker panel — AGTR1, SLC6A3, TH, KCNJ6, etc.; full list lifted from GSE178265 supplementary table) recovers as a contiguous cluster in each of Wang (A3), Adams (A4), and Fullard SNpc (A8) atlases at our chosen clustering resolution. The log-fold-change of (AGTR1+ DA cells / total DA cells) PD vs. matched-age control is negative (depletion) in all 3 replication atlases, with FDR < 0.05 (Benjamini–Hochberg). Effect-size requirement: the magnitude of depletion is within ±50% of the Kamath reference (≈3-fold loss → our log2FC ∈ [-2.6, -0.95]).

H2 (secondary — TP53 / NR2F2 program upregulation): Within retained AGTR1+ DA cells, the TP53 target module and NR2F2 target module (lifted directly from Hallmark TP53 signaling + the Kamath-cited NR2F2 ChIP-seq targets) show positive PD-vs-control fold-change at FDR < 0.05 in ≥ 2 of 3 replication atlases.

H3 (secondary — blind-replication out-of-cohort): A "consensus AGTR1+ marker panel" (intersection of the marker-gene sets across Kamath + Wang + Adams + Fullard SNpc, re-derived from our own DE analysis) scored as a per-donor pseudobulk signature stratifies the Martirosyan A5 PD vs. control donors with ROC AUC ≥ 0.75 (95% bootstrap CI excluding 0.5).

H4 (secondary — cluster-resolution sensitivity): We report the sensitivity of H1 to clustering resolution (Leiden / Louvain γ ∈ {0.3, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0}). H1's sign and FDR pass are stable across at least 4 of the 6 resolutions. (A finding that AGTR1+ depletion is observed only at γ ≈ Kamath's published resolution would itself be biologically informative and must be reported.)

H5 (secondary — spatial vs. proportional vs. expression decomposition): We decompose PD-vs-control DA loss into: (a) total nuclei recovered per donor (sequencing depth / dissection artifact) (b) DA-cluster fraction within total nuclei (c) AGTR1+ subcluster fraction within DA (d) per-cell AGTR1 expression within AGTR1+ DA and report each of (a)–(d) separately. Honest replication of Kamath requires the effect to be predominantly in (c), not in (a) or (b). A dominant (a) effect would indicate the original finding is partly a dissection or doublet artifact.

A negative or partial-replication result is fully informative. This OmiCairn run must report cluster-merging, marker-gene-loss, or resolution-instability findings as the headline rather than tune clustering until H1 passes.

The research question comes from the topic's current research brief. All attempts at a topic share it; earlier attempts may have started from an earlier wording.

Hypotheses and verdicts

Each hypothesis was written with its decision rule before any analysis (or, for on-the-fly hypotheses, recorded during execution). AI adjudication agents applied that rule to the run's latest outputs and quoted the evidence verbatim. Where the data did not meet the rule, the verdict follows the data, even if the run's own label or report claimed support.

Each hypothesis as pre-registered (a condensed statement with its decision rule), the adjudicated verdict, the verbatim evidence and the adjudicator's note.
IDHypothesis and decision ruleVerdict
H1Pre-registeredKamath AGTR1+ DA subtype recovers and is depleted in PD (log2FC in [-2.6,-0.95], BH-FDR<0.05) in Wang, Adams and Fullard SNpcInconclusiveIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

The AGTR1+ cluster was not recoverable in either atlas (replication rate 0.0/2, 95% Wilson CI [0.0%, 65.8%], permutation p=1.0)

Adjudication note

Formal rule failed (report frames as 'pre-registered null') but attributes failure to DA yield: 52 and 27 DA cells, Adams 2 PD donors, Fullard SNpc absent. Strict reading would be NOT_SUPPORTED.

H2Pre-registeredTP53 and NR2F2 stress modules upregulated in residual AGTR1+ DA cells (BH-FDR<0.05) in >=2/3 atlasesNot testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

H2 cannot be formally evaluated because no AGTR1+ subcluster was recovered in either atlas (Fig. 4).

Adjudication note

Only a TP53 proxy on all DA cells (FDR 0.190); NR2F2 gene set not cached. Report labels H2 'inconclusive'.

H3Pre-registeredLocked consensus AGTR1+ panel classifies Martirosyan 2024 PD vs ctrl donors with AUC>=0.75, CI lower >0.5Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

The ROC AUC was 0.419 (95% bootstrap CI 0.217–0.644; Wilcoxon p=0.471; Fig. 5), falling below the pre-registered threshold of 0.75

Adjudication note

Panel derived from atlases with only 27-52 DA cells.

H4Pre-registeredH1 sign and FDR stable across >=4/6 Leiden resolutions within each atlas that passed H1InconclusiveIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

(0 stable resolutions in both atlases; Fig. 2)

Adjudication note

Conditional on H1 passing; no atlas passed, so robustness of a non-existent effect is undefined.

H5Pre-registeredDecomposition of DA loss: AGTR1+-within-DA fraction (component c) is the dominant driver vs total nuclei/DA fractionNot supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

the dominant component of PD-vs-control DA-related change was component b — the DA-cluster fraction within total nuclei — with log2FC=−1.325 (95% CI −3.313 to −0.605)

Adjudication note

Descriptive; component b dominant in both atlases, component c CI spans zero; very low cell counts.