Campaign run · Alzheimer's disease

alzheimer-gwas-snatac-celltype-r1

ADTested, stopped before reviewSingle attempt at this topic

Which of the 75+ AD GWAS loci harbor causal variants within microglia-specific enhancers controlled by SPI1, ELF2, or RUNX1 (vs. excitatory neuron-specific circuits), what are the effector genes and their direction of effect, and do these cell-type-specific regulatory circuits operate differently across AD disease stages in existing multi-omic atlases?

  • Supported 1
  • Not supported 3
  • Not testable (data) 1
  • Not tested (run did not execute) 1

Status

How far it got
Tested, stopped before review

Tested at least one hypothesis, then stopped before the multi-agent review stage.

Hypotheses

6 nominated; 5 evaluated; 1 not tested because the run did not execute them.

Recorded status

Halted. The run recorded a final status of halted: it was closed without being marked done. A halted run can still have tested hypotheses and written a final report.

Census class

Success. Census class is a label from an earlier, process-level census of the campaign. It does not map one-to-one onto the stages above. How the classes compare.

Research question

The sentence under the run id is quoted from this brief.

Full research brief given to the run

Direction d3 from the Alzheimer's-mechanism IDEATE run.

Cell-type-resolved functional dissection of AD GWAS variants in microglial vs neuronal cis-regulatory elements via snATAC-seq.

Which of the 75+ AD GWAS loci harbor causal variants within microglia-specific enhancers controlled by SPI1, ELF2, or RUNX1 (vs. excitatory neuron-specific circuits), what are the effector genes and their direction of effect, and do these cell-type-specific regulatory circuits operate differently across AD disease stages in existing multi-omic atlases?

AD GWAS hits are enriched in microglial enhancers (Tsai/Kellis Cell 2023, SPI1/ELF2/RUNX1), but most of the 75+ loci remain functionally uncharacterized at cell-type resolution, and neuronal regulatory circuits may mediate risk through synaptic gene programs independently of microglia. This OmiCairn run re-analyses open human snATAC-seq (the Morabito 2021 multiome ATAC arm) against AD GWAS loci to ask which loci fall in microglia- vs neuron-specific cis-regulatory elements, identify candidate effector genes and the direction of effect, and test whether the microglial regulatory circuits are stage-dependent.

Hypotheses (pre-registered, lifted from d3):

H1 (primary — SPI1/microglial enhancer dominance of AD GWAS loci): SPI1 (PU.1) binding motif accessibility in microglia snATAC-seq is the single strongest predictor of causal AD GWAS variant activity, with at least 15 of the top 75 GWAS loci having their strongest chromatin-accessibility QTL (or peak overlap / motif disruption signal) in microglia rather than neurons, astrocytes, or oligodendrocytes. Decision rule: for each AD GWAS lead/credible-set variant, compute cell-type-resolved snATAC peak overlap and SPI1 motif accessibility per cell type; rank cell types per locus; report the count of loci whose strongest microglial signal exceeds the other cell types, with effect size + p-value + 95% CI for the microglia-vs-other enrichment. H1 passes if ≥15 of the top 75 loci are microglia-dominant AND SPI1 motif accessibility is the top predictor (significant at p<0.05) of microglial variant activity.

H2 (secondary — DAM-stage timing of microglial GWAS circuits): Microglial GWAS-variant regulatory circuits are most active at the DAM stage (mid-disease), not at homeostatic or late-disease stages, suggesting the therapeutic window for GWAS-linked microglial targets is the early-to-mid Braak period. Decision rule: stratify microglia by activation state (homeostatic / DAM / late) using marker programs and/or Braak stage; compute GWAS-variant-overlapping peak accessibility per stage; report the stage contrast (DAM vs homeostatic and DAM vs late) as effect size + p-value + 95% CI. H2 passes if peak accessibility at GWAS-overlapping microglial loci is significantly higher at the DAM/mid stage than at both homeostatic and late stages (p<0.05, 95% CI excluding 0).

IMPORTANT — feasibility caveat (snATAC is heavy): snATAC peak-calling and peak-to-variant integration is substantially heavier than the RNA-only AD cases and depends on the snATAC arm being present and parseable in the fetched object, plus a usable AD GWAS variant list. EXECUTE MUST verify, BEFORE asserting H1/H2: (1) the snATAC fragment/ peak matrix is fetchable and parseable; (2) a public AD GWAS lead/credible-set variant list is obtained (ADGC public summary statistics / published supplementary tables — never fabricated accessions or coordinates); (3) variant-to-peak overlap can actually be computed against a stated genome build. If peak calls cannot be computed, the variant overlap cannot be performed, or cell-type labels are absent, EXECUTE MUST report that honestly in analysis summary § Limitations and fall back to whatever partial analysis is supportable (e.g. cell-type marker-gene accessibility, or the RNA arm only) rather than fabricating peak/variant overlaps. Do NOT impute peaks, QTLs, or genotypes.

A negative or partial result is fully informative. If AD GWAS loci are NOT preferentially microglia-/SPI1-resolved, or the circuits are not stage-dependent, that must be the headline rather than re-tuning peak definitions or variant sets until H1/H2 pass.

The research question comes from the topic's current research brief. All attempts at a topic share it; earlier attempts may have started from an earlier wording.

Hypotheses and verdicts

Each hypothesis was written with its decision rule before any analysis (or, for on-the-fly hypotheses, recorded during execution). AI adjudication agents applied that rule to the run's latest outputs and quoted the evidence verbatim. Where the data did not meet the rule, the verdict follows the data, even if the run's own label or report claimed support.

Each hypothesis as pre-registered (a condensed statement with its decision rule), the adjudicated verdict, the verbatim evidence and the adjudicator's note.
IDHypothesis and decision ruleVerdict
H1Pre-registeredOf top-75 AD GWAS loci, microglia-dominant snATAC fraction exceeds p0=0.25 (>=25 loci, binomial) AND SPI1 motif accessibility is the top predictor of microglial dominance.Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Under that denominator, the observed proportion is 13/75=17.3%, and the binomial test against p₀=0.25 gives p≈0.87 (FAIL).

Adjudication note

Criterion 1 fails under pre-registered n=75 denominator (only 33/75 loci had any peak); among 33 testable loci 13 MG-dominant, binomial p=0.048 (post hoc conditioning). Criterion 2 (SPI1) untestable: JASPAR/FIMO unavailable, logistic proxy circular/non-convergent. OmiCairn stage 4 analysis labelled 'PARTIAL' and knowledge-graph status = supported (discrepancy; code review & report call it FAIL).

H2Pre-registeredMicroglial GWAS-overlapping peak accessibility peaks at DAM/mid-disease stage vs both homeostatic and late stages (both contrasts p<0.05, CI excl. 0).Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

GWAS-overlapping peak accessibility was not stage-dependent (early vs late Δ=−0.008, 95% CI −0.023 to 0.007, p=0.881), refuting H2.

Adjudication note

Late-stage numerically higher (opposite). DAM-marker Stage2>Stage1 contrast 'significant' but flagged by code review as bootstrap collapse at 3-5 donors/group. Only 20 Morabito donors (plan: underpowered, d>=1.45); SEA-AD fallback not run (Synapse auth). Knowledge-graph nodes: one inconclusive, one refuted.

H3Pre-registeredExploratory: secondary compartment of GWAS loci in excitatory-neuron peaks; rank order microglia > excitatory neurons > oligodendrocytes ~ astrocytes.Not supportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Number of GWAS loci where each cell type is dominant (MG: 13, ASC: 7, EX: 3, ODC: 2; 8 below accessibility floor).

Adjudication note

UNCERTAIN: no pre-registered threshold and the planned chi-square/pairwise Fisher tests were never run; verdict is descriptive only (observed order MG>ASC>EX>ODC, EX not second). Defensible alternative: INCONCLUSIVE.

OTF1Proposed on the flyProportion of microglia-dominant loci exceeds the mean proportion for non-microglial cell types.SupportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

This CI excludes 0, supporting directional microglial enrichment among loci with detectable accessibility.

Adjudication note

Delta=0.273, 95% CI [0.071, 0.485], p=0.004, but only among 33/75 testable loci; report notes compositional non-independence and that the stricter permutation-null comparison is not significant (Delta=0.029, p=0.483).

OTF2Proposed on the flyGWAS-linked microglial circuits peak at late disease (Stage 5-6) rather than mid-disease (sustained late-inflammatory phenotype).Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

The SEA-AD atlas [9]—84 donors spanning the full severity spectrum with paired snATAC-seq and quantitative neuropathology—is the appropriate resource to resolve H2 definitively.

Adjudication note

Raised twice (stages 2 and 4). Morabito early-vs-late CI includes 0; SEA-AD snATAC blocked by Synapse authentication.

OTF3Proposed on the flyFine-mapped credible sets (+/-5-50 kb) would recover more loci than lead-SNP overlap and may strengthen microglial enrichment.Not runIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

Use fine-mapped credible sets from Bellenguez 2022 rather than lead SNPs.

Adjudication note

Run halted (orphaned) at claim-review stage 7 before any follow-up execute; credible sets are public.