Campaign run · Parkinson's disease

pd-vatpase-lysosomal-compensation-r1

PDCompleted the pipelineSingle attempt at this topic

This run PRE-REGISTERS THE OBSERVED DIRECTION (V-ATPase UP) and tests it in INDEPENDENT cohorts and modalities.

  • Supported 1
  • Partially supported 1
  • Inconclusive 2
  • Not testable (data) 1

Status

How far it got
Completed the pipeline

Tested at least one hypothesis and reached the multi-agent review stage. This shows the run went through the whole pipeline, not that its work passed a quality bar.

Hypotheses

5 nominated; 5 evaluated.

Recorded status

Halted. The run recorded a final status of halted: it was closed without being marked done. A halted run can still have tested hypotheses and written a final report.

Census class

Success. Census class is a label from an earlier, process-level census of the campaign. It does not map one-to-one onto the stages above. How the classes compare.

Research question

The sentence under the run id is quoted from this brief.

Full research brief given to the run

Confirmatory replication of a self-generated OmiCairn finding. In a prior OmiCairn run on LRRK2 G2019S isogenic iPSC-derived dopaminergic (iPSC-DA) neurons (NanoString Human Neuropathology panel), nine CLEAR-network V-ATPase subunit genes — ATP6V0C, ATP6V0D1, ATP6V0E1, ATP6V0E2, ATP6V1A, ATP6V1D, ATP6V1E1, ATP6V1G2, ATP6V1H — were PREDOMINANTLY UPregulated in LRRK2 G2019S vs isogenic corrected controls (8/9 up at the donor level, mean log2FC = +0.485), and the direction was not comparison-specific (also +0.452, 7/9 up vs an independent healthy control). We interpret this as a COMPENSATORY transcriptional response: failing lysosomal acidification in PD-genotype DA neurons drives TFEB/CLEAR-network upregulation of the V-ATPase proton pump. The original cohort was small (NanoString, donor-level permutation power-limited), so the direction is a SUPPORTED but under-powered lab-KB hypothesis, not an established fact.

This run PRE-REGISTERS THE OBSERVED DIRECTION (V-ATPase UP) and tests it in INDEPENDENT cohorts and modalities. Cohorts: (1) GSE167335 — the LRRK2 G2019S isogenic iPSC-DA NanoString panel (independent replication of the exact original modality, where the panel covers the V-ATPase subunits it measures); (2) ArrayExpress E-MTAB-7303 (Lang

2020) — iPSC-DA neurons from GBA-N370S PD patients vs controls vs idiopathic PD, bulk + single-cell RNA-seq, the GBA1-mutant arm; and

(3) Smajić GSE157783 — postmortem human substantia-nigra/midbrain snRNA-seq (idiopathic PD vs control), the postmortem in-vivo arm and the blind held-out validation cohort. This pre-registers a clear honesty guard: we are testing — NOT assuming — that the compensatory UP-direction replicates; a clean reversal or null in independent data is the headline.

Hypotheses (pre-registered — directions are TESTED, not assumed):

H1 (primary — independent LRRK2 replication of V-ATPase UP): In GSE167335 (LRRK2 G2019S isogenic iPSC-DA), the 9 measured CLEAR-network V-ATPase subunits are UPregulated in LRRK2 G2019S relative to isogenic corrected controls, replicating the prior observed +0.485 mean log2FC direction. Decision rule: donor-level (NOT replicate-level — collapse differentiation replicates to donor means to avoid pseudo-replication, exactly as the prior finding required) mean log2FC across the V-ATPase set, with a donor-label permutation test (report the minimum achievable permutation p given n) + per-gene 95% bootstrap CI. H1 REPLICATES if the mean direction is positive AND ≥6/9 subunits are individually up with the donor-level permutation p at its achievable floor. A reversal (net down) or a null is reported verbatim as failure-to-replicate.

H2 (secondary — GBA1-mutant direction in an independent modality): The compensatory V-ATPase UP-direction generalises from LRRK2 to the OTHER major lysosomal-membrane PD gene, GBA1. In E-MTAB-7303 (GBA-N370S iPSC-DA vs control), the V-ATPase / CLEAR-network module is UPregulated in GBA-N370S DA neurons. Decision rule: per-sample pseudobulk (single-cell arm) and bulk DE for the V-ATPase module; report module-level effect size + FDR + 95% CI. H2 supports the compensation model if GBA-N370S shows positive module shift (FDR<0.05, CI excluding 0). The competing model (V-ATPase DOWN with failing lysosome) is equally reportable; do NOT tune toward UP.

H3 (secondary — postmortem-SN direction + held-out blind validation): A V-ATPase / CLEAR-network module score, LOCKED from the iPSC-DA arms (the 9-gene set + any weights), is scored WITHOUT refitting on the held-out Smajić GSE157783 postmortem SN/midbrain atlas (idiopathic PD vs control), restricted to the dopaminergic compartment. Report the PD-vs-control module effect + 95% CI and, as a classification readout, AUC + 1000× bootstrap CI for separating PD from control donors on the module score. The lock file is frozen before touching GSE157783. A null/opposite postmortem direction is informative (iPSC compensation may not survive to end-stage postmortem tissue) and is reported as such.

H4 (secondary — DA-neuron selectivity): The V-ATPase compensatory shift is SELECTIVE for the dopaminergic compartment rather than a global neuronal/glial effect. In the cohorts with multiple cell types (E-MTAB-7303 single-cell; GSE157783 SN), compare the V-ATPase module shift in DA neurons vs non-DA neurons vs glia. Decision rule: per-donor module score × cell-class interaction; report the DA-vs-other contrast effect + p + 95% CI. H4 supports selectivity if the DA shift significantly exceeds the non-DA shift. A non-selective (global) shift is an informative alternative and reported plainly.

H5 (secondary — honest-failure / sensitivity + power decomposition): Decompose the replication into: (i) the achievable donor-label-permutation power floor at each cohort's n (the original limitation — state the minimum p reachable and whether the cohort can even support a significant call); (ii) sensitivity to the V-ATPase gene-set definition (the 9-gene CLEAR subset vs a broader TFEB/CLEAR target set vs V0-only vs V1-only); (iii) normalisation / batch sensitivity (NanoString housekeeping panel vs bulk vs single-cell pseudobulk). State explicitly that an under-powered null (cannot reject) is NOT the same as a replicated reversal, and report which cohorts are merely under-powered vs genuinely contradictory.

A negative or partial result is fully informative. If independent cohorts show V-ATPase DOWNregulation (true lysosomal failure rather than compensation), or only an under-powered null, THAT is the headline — the self-generated compensatory-UP hypothesis must be reported as not-replicated rather than retuned (gene-set cherry-picking, replicate-level inflation) until it reads UP.

The research question comes from the topic's current research brief. All attempts at a topic share it; earlier attempts may have started from an earlier wording.

Hypotheses and verdicts

Each hypothesis was written with its decision rule before any analysis (or, for on-the-fly hypotheses, recorded during execution). AI adjudication agents applied that rule to the run's latest outputs and quoted the evidence verbatim. Where the data did not meet the rule, the verdict follows the data, even if the run's own label or report claimed support.

Each hypothesis as pre-registered (a condensed statement with its decision rule), the adjudicated verdict, the verbatim evidence and the adjudicator's note.
IDHypothesis and decision ruleVerdict
H1Pre-registeredV-ATPase CLEAR module UP (mean log2FC>0, >=6 subunits up, perm p at floor) in LRRK2 G2019S isogenic iPSC-DA, GSE167335SupportedIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

(direction): Mean log2FC = +0.4846 (95% CI +0.182 to +0.787), 8/9 subunits individually up, permutation p = 0.167 at its achievable floor.

Adjudication note

Pre-registered direction rule met at n=2+2 (no formal significance possible). Knowledge-graph nodes = supported. CAVEAT: Δ vs prior = -0.0004; report itself questions whether GSE167335 is independent of the original cohort (possible re-analysis of the same data).

H2Pre-registeredV-ATPase module higher in GBA-N370S vs control iPSC-DA in E-MTAB-7303Not testableIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

E-MTAB-7303 (pre-registered H2 cohort) remains BLOCKED — raw FASTQ only, no alignment tools installed.

Adjudication note

Only proxy-tested post hoc in GSE62642 (n=4 vs 2): module d = -0.042, 95% CI [-2.531, 1.563], NULL/underpowered. Knowledge-graph nodes = inconclusive. If the proxy is accepted, verdict would be INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered null).

H3Pre-registerediPSC-locked V-ATPase module higher in PD than control postmortem SN DA neurons (GSE157783); AUC and effect CIs exclude nullInconclusiveIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

AUC = 1.000 with CI = [1.0, 1.0] is uninformative due to complete separation at this sample size.

Adjudication note

Letter of the rule met (d=+5.14, CI [5.142, 15.558]; AUC CI [1,1]) and graph status 'supported', but CIs are degenerate at n=2+2, perm p=0.167; run states formal inference is impossible.

H4Pre-registeredV-ATPase shift is DA-neuron selective (DA-vs-other contrast CI excludes 0)InconclusiveIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

DA vs non-DA contrast: Δd = +4.065, 95% CI [−174.663, +15.394], p = 0.741

Adjudication note

Run verdict GLOBAL/inconclusive; pre-registered rule would call this NULL; n=2+2 per cell type.

H5Pre-registeredSensitivity/power decomposition: replication verdict robust to gene-set and normalisation choices; cohort power adequacyPartialIn the explorer

Evidence (verbatim from the run outputs)

No cohort in this study can achieve formal statistical significance at α = 0.05 in the available data.

Adjudication note

Descriptive sub-analyses with no formal decision rule. H1 direction robust to normalisation (+0.485 vs +0.490); gene-set split not robust (V0-only down -1.35 in GSE157783 while 9-gene up); no cohort adequately powered.